Forrest, J. L., Wikramanayake, E., Shrestha, R., Areendran, G., Gyeltshen, K., Maheshwari, A., Mazumdar, S., Naidoo, R., Thapa, G. J., Thapa, K. (2012). Conservation and climate change: Assessing the vulnerability of snow leopard habitat to treeline shift in the Himalaya. Biological Conservation, 150, 129–135.
Abstract: Climate change is likely to affect the persistence of large, space-requiring species through habitat shifts,
loss, and fragmentation. Anthropogenic land and resource use changes related to climate change can also
impact the survival of wildlife. Thus, climate change has to be integrated into biodiversity conservation
plans. We developed a hybrid approach to climate-adaptive conservation landscape planning for snow
leopards in the Himalayan Mountains. We first mapped current snow leopard habitat using a mechanistic
approach that incorporated field-based data, and then combined it with a climate impact model using a
correlative approach. For the latter, we used statistical methods to test hypotheses about climatic drivers
of treeline in the Himalaya and its potential response to climate change under three IPCC greenhouse gas
emissions scenarios. We then assessed how change in treeline might affect the distribution of snow leopard
habitat. Results indicate that about 30% of snow leopard habitat in the Himalaya may be lost due to a
shifting treeline and consequent shrinking of the alpine zone, mostly along the southern edge of the range
and in river valleys. But, a considerable amount of snow leopard habitat and linkages are likely to remain
resilient to climate change, and these should be secured. This is because, as the area of snow leopard habitat
fragments and shrinks, threats such as livestock grazing, retaliatory killing, and medicinal plant collection
can intensify. We propose this approach for landscape conservation planning for other species
with extensive spatial requirements that can also be umbrella species for overall biodiversity.
2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved
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Li, J., McCarthy, T. M., Wang, H., Weckworth, B. V., Shaller, G. B., Mishra, C., Lu, Z., Beissinger, S. R. (2016). Climate refugia of snow leopards in High Asia. Biological Conservation, (203), 188–196.
Abstract: Rapidwarming in High Asia is threatening its unique ecosystemand endemic species, especially the endangered
snow leopard (Panthera uncia). Snow leopards inhabit the alpine zone between snow line and tree line, which
contracts and expands greatly during glacier-interglacial cycles. Here we assess impacts of climate change on
global snow leopard habitat from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kyr ago) to the late 21st century. Based
on occurrence records of snow leopards collected across all snow leopard range countries from 1983 to 2015,
we built a snow leopard habitat model using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt 3.3.3k). Then we
projected this model into LGM, mid-Holocene and 2070. Analysis of snow leopard habitat map from LGM to
2070 indicates that three large patches of stable habitat have persisted from the LGM to present in the Altai,
Qilian, and Tian Shan-Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram mountain ranges, and are projected to persist through the
late 21st century. These climatically suitable areas account for about 35% of the snow leopard's current extent,
are large enough to support viable populations, and should function as refugia for snow leopards to survive
through both cold and warm periods. Existence of these refugia is largely due to the unique mountain environment
in High Asia, which maintains a relatively constant arid or semi-arid climate. However, habitat loss leading
to fragmentation in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains, as well as increasing human activities, will present
conservation challenges for snow leopards and other sympatric species.
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Miller, D. J., & Jackson, R. (1994). Livestock and Snow Leopards:making room for competing users on the Tibetian Plateau. In J.L.Fox, & D.Jizeng (Eds.), (pp. 315–328). Usa: Islt.
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