Johansson, O., McCarthy, T., Samelius, G., Andren, H., Tumursukh, L., Mishra, C. (2015). Snow leopard predation in a livestock dominated landscape in Mongolia. Biological Conservation, 184, 251–258.
Abstract: Livestock predation is an important cause of endangerment of the snow leopard (Panthera uncia) across
its range. Yet, detailed information on individual and spatio-temporal variation in predation patterns of
snow leopards and their kill rates of livestock and wild ungulates are lacking.
We collared 19 snow leopards in the Tost Mountains, Mongolia, and searched clusters of GPS positions
to identify prey remains and estimate kill rate and prey choice.
Snow leopards killed, on average, one ungulate every 8 days, which included more wild prey (73%) than
livestock (27%), despite livestock abundance being at least one order of magnitude higher. Predation on
herded livestock occurred mainly on stragglers and in rugged areas where animals are out of sight of herders.
The two wild ungulates, ibex (Capra ibex) and argali (Ovis ammon), were killed in proportion to their
relative abundance. Predation patterns changed with spatial (wild ungulates) and seasonal (livestock)
changes in prey abundance. Adult male snow leopards killed larger prey and 2–6 times more livestock
compared to females and young males. Kill rates were considerably higher than previous scat-based estimates, and kill rates of females were higher than kill rates of males. We suggest that (i) snow leopards
prey largely on wild ungulates and kill livestock opportunistically, (ii) retaliatory killing by livestock herders
is likely to cause greater mortality of adult male snow leopards compared to females and young
males, and (iii) total off-take of prey by a snow leopard population is likely to be much higher than previous
estimates suggest.
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Johansson, O., Mishra, C., Chapron, G., Samelius, G., Lkhagvajav, P., McCarthy, T., Low, M. (2022). Seasonal variation in daily activity patterns of snow leopards and their prey. Nature Portfolio, 12(21681), 1–11.
Abstract: The daily and seasonal activity patterns of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) are poorly understood, limiting our ecological understanding and hampering our ability to mitigate threats such as climate change and retaliatory killing in response to livestock predation. We fitted GPS-collars with activity loggers to snow leopards, Siberian ibex (Capra sibirica: their main prey), and domestic goats (Capra hircus: common livestock prey) in Mongolia between 2009 and 2020. Snow leopards were facultatively nocturnal with season-specific crepuscular activity peaks: seasonal activity shifted towards night- sunrise during summer, and day-sunset in winter. Snow leopard activity was in contrast to their prey, which were consistently diurnal. We interpret these results in relation to: (1) darkness as concealment for snow leopards when stalking in an open landscape (nocturnal activity), (2) low-intermediate light preferred for predatory ambush in steep rocky terrain (dawn and dusk activity), and (3) seasonal activity adjustments to facilitate thermoregulation in an extreme environment. These patterns suggest that to minimise human-wildlife conflict, livestock should be corralled at night and dawn in summer, and dusk in winter. It is likely that climate change will intensify seasonal effects on the snow leopard’s daily temporal niche for thermoregulation in the future.
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Johansson, O., Rauset, G. R., Samelius, G., McCarthy, T., Andren, H., Tumursukh, L., Mishra, C. (2016). Land sharing is essential for snow leopard conservation. Biological Conservation, (203), 1–7.
Abstract: Conserving large carnivores in an increasingly crowded planet raises difficult challenges. A recurring debate is whether large carnivores can be conserved in human used landscapes (land sharing) or whether they require specially designated areas (land sparing). Here we show that 40% of the 170 protected areas in the global range of the snow leopard (Panthera uncia) are smaller than the home range of a single adult male and only 4– 13% are large enough for a 90% probability of containing 15 or more adult females. We used data from 16 snow leopards equipped with GPS collars in the Tost Mountains of South Gobi, Mongolia, to calculate home range size and overlap using three different estimators: minimum convex polygons (MCP), kernel utility distributions (Kernel), and local convex hulls (LoCoH). Local convex hull home ranges were smaller and included lower proportions of unused habitats compared to home ranges based on minimum convex polygons and Kernels. Intra-sexual home range overlapwas low, especially for adult males, suggesting that snowleopards are territorial. Mean home range size based on the LoCoH estimates was 207 km2 ± 63 SD for adult males and 124 km2 ± 41 SD for adult females. Our estimates were 6–44 times larger than earlier estimates based on VHF technology when comparing similar estimators, i.e. MCP. Our study illustrates that protected areas alone will not be able to conserve predatorswith large home ranges and conservationists and managers should not restrict their efforts to land sparing.
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Johansson, O., Samelius, G., Wikberg, E, Chapron, G., Mishra, C., Low, M. (2020). Identification errors in camera- trap studies result in systematic population overestimation. Scientific Reports, 10(6393), 1–10.
Abstract: Reliable assessments of animal abundance are key for successful conservation of endangered species. For elusive animals with individually-unique markings, camera-trap surveys are a benchmark standard for estimating local and global population abundance. Central to the reliability of resulting abundance estimates is the assumption that individuals are accurately identified from photographic captures. To quantify the risk of individual misidentification and its impact on population abundance estimates we performed an experiment under controlled conditions in which 16 captive snow leopards (Panthera uncia) were camera-trapped on 40 occasions and eight observers independently identified individuals and recaptures. Observers misclassified 12.5% of all capture occasions, resulting in systematically inflated population abundance estimates on average by one third (mean ± SD = 35 ± 21%). Our results show that identifying individually-unique individuals from camera-trap photos may not be as reliable as previously believed, implying that elusive and endangered species could be less abundant than current estimates indicate.
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Jumabay, K., Wegge, P., Mishra, C., Sharma, K. (2013). Large carnivores and low diversity of optimal prey: a comparison of the diets of snow leopards Panthera uncia and wolves Canis lupus in Sarychat-Ertash Reserve in Kyrgyzstan. Oryx, , 1–7.
Abstract: In the cold and arid mountains of Central Asia, where the diversity and abundance of wild ungulates
are generally low, resource partitioning among coexisting carnivores is probably less distinct than in prey-rich areas. Thus, similar-sized carnivores are likely to compete for food. We compared the summer diets of snow leopards Panthera uncia and wolves Canis lupus in Sarychat-Ertash Reserve in the Tien-Shan mountains of Kyrgyzstan, based on analysis of genetically confirmed scats. Abundances of
the principal prey species, argali Ovis ammon and Siberian ibex Capra sibirica, were estimated from field surveys. The diets consisted of few species, with high interspecific overlap (Pianka’s index50.91). Argali was the predominant prey, with .50% frequency of occurrence in both snow leopard and wolf scats. This was followed by Siberian ibex and marmots Marmota baibacina. Being largely unavailable, remains of livestock were not detected in any of the scats. In the snow leopard diet, proportions of argali and ibex were in
line with the relative availabilities of these animals in the Reserve. This was in contrast to the diet of wolf, where argali occurred according to availability and ibex was significantly underrepresented. The high diet overlap indicates that the two predators might compete for food when the diversity of profitable, large prey is low. Competition may be more intense in winter, when marmots are not available. Hunting of argali and ibex outside the Reserve may be unsustainable and therefore reduce their abundances over time. This will
affect both predators negatively and intensify competition for food. Reduction in ibex populations will directly affect the snow leopard, and the wolf is likely to be indirectly affected as a result of increased snow leopard predation of argali.
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Khanal, G., Mishra, C., Suryawanshi, K. R. (2020). Relative influence of wild prey and livestock abundance on
carnivore-caused livestock predation. Ecology and Evolution, , 1–11.
Abstract: Conservation conflict over livestock depredation is one of the
key drivers of large mammalian carnivore declines worldwide. Mitigating
this conflict requires strategies informed by reliable knowledge of
factors influencing livestock depredation. Wild prey and livestock
abundance are critical factors influencing the extent of livestock
depredation. We compared whether the extent of livestock predation by
snow leopards Panthera uncia differed in relation to densities of wild
prey, livestock, and snow leopards at two sites in Shey Phoksundo
National Park, Nepal. We used camera trap-based spatially explicit
capture–recapture models to estimate snow leopard density;
double-observer surveys to estimate the density of their main prey
species, the blue sheep Pseudois nayaur; and interview-based household
surveys to estimate livestock population and number of livestock killed
by snow leopards. The proportion of livestock lost per household was
seven times higher in Upper Dolpa, the site which had higher snow
leopard density (2.51 snow leopards per 100 km2) and higher livestock
density (17.21 livestock per km2) compared to Lower Dolpa (1.21 snow
leopards per 100 km2; 4.5 livestock per km2). The wild prey density was
similar across the two sites (1.81 and 1.57 animals per km2 in Upper and
Lower Dolpa, respectively). Our results suggest that livestock
depredation level may largely be determined by the abundances of the
snow leopards and livestock and predation levels on livestock can vary
even at similar levels of wild prey density. In large parts of the snow
leopard range, livestock production is indispensable to local
livelihoods and livestock population is expected to increase to meet the
demand of cashmere. Hence, we recommend that any efforts to increase
livestock populations or conservation initiatives aimed at recovering or
increasing snow leopard population be accompanied by better herding
practices (e.g., predator-proof corrals) to protect livestock from snow
leopard.
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Khanyari, M., Zhumabai uulu, K., Luecke, S., Mishra, C.,
Suryawanshi, K. (2020). Understanding population baselines: status of mountain ungulate
populations in the Central Tien Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan. Mammalia, , 1–8.
Abstract: We assessed the density of argali (Ovis ammon) and ibex
(Capra sibirica) in Sarychat-Ertash Nature Reserve and its neighbouring
Koiluu valley. Sarychat is a protected area, while Koiluu is a human-use
landscape which is a partly licenced hunting concession for mountain
ungulates and has several livestock herders and their permanent
residential structures. Population monitoring of mountain ungulates can
help in setting measurable conservation targets such as appropriate
trophy hunting quotas and to assess habitat suitability for predators
like snow leopards (Panthera uncia). We employed the double-observer
method to survey 573 km2 of mountain ungulate habitat inside Sarychat
and 407 km2 inside Koiluu. The estimated densities of ibex and argali in
Sarychat were 2.26 (95% CI 1.47–3.52) individuals km-2 and 1.54 (95% CI
1.01–2.20) individuals km-2, respectively. Total ungulate density in
Sarychat was 3.80 (95% CI 2.47–5.72) individuals km-2. We did not record
argali in Koiluu, whereas the density of ibex was 0.75 (95% CI
0.50–1.27) individuals km-2. While strictly protected areas can achieve
high densities of mountain ungulates, multi-use areas can harbour
meaningful
though suppressed populations. Conservation of mountain ungulates and
their predators can be enhanced by maintaining Sarychat-like “pristine”
areas interspersed within a matrix of multi-use areas like Koiluu.
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Li, J., McCarthy, T. M., Wang, H., Weckworth, B. V., Shaller, G. B., Mishra, C., Lu, Z., Beissinger, S. R. (2016). Climate refugia of snow leopards in High Asia. Biological Conservation, (203), 188–196.
Abstract: Rapidwarming in High Asia is threatening its unique ecosystemand endemic species, especially the endangered
snow leopard (Panthera uncia). Snow leopards inhabit the alpine zone between snow line and tree line, which
contracts and expands greatly during glacier-interglacial cycles. Here we assess impacts of climate change on
global snow leopard habitat from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kyr ago) to the late 21st century. Based
on occurrence records of snow leopards collected across all snow leopard range countries from 1983 to 2015,
we built a snow leopard habitat model using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt 3.3.3k). Then we
projected this model into LGM, mid-Holocene and 2070. Analysis of snow leopard habitat map from LGM to
2070 indicates that three large patches of stable habitat have persisted from the LGM to present in the Altai,
Qilian, and Tian Shan-Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram mountain ranges, and are projected to persist through the
late 21st century. These climatically suitable areas account for about 35% of the snow leopard's current extent,
are large enough to support viable populations, and should function as refugia for snow leopards to survive
through both cold and warm periods. Existence of these refugia is largely due to the unique mountain environment
in High Asia, which maintains a relatively constant arid or semi-arid climate. However, habitat loss leading
to fragmentation in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains, as well as increasing human activities, will present
conservation challenges for snow leopards and other sympatric species.
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Li, J., Weckworth, B. V., McCarthy, T. M., Liang, X., Liu, Y., Xing, R., Li, D., Zhang, Y., Xue, Y., Jackson, R., Xiao, L., Cheng, C., Li, S., Xu, F., Ma, M., Yang, X., Diao, K., Gao, Y., Song, D., Nowell, K., He, B., Li, Y., McCarthy, K., Paltsyn, M. Y., Sharma, K., Mishra, C., Schaller, G. B., Lu, Z., Beissinger, S. R. (2019). Defining priorities for global snow leopard conservation landscapes. Biological Conservation, 241(108387), 1–10.
Abstract: The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is an apex predator on the Tibetan Plateau and in the surrounding mountain ranges. It is listed as Vulnerable in the IUCN's Red List. The large home range and low population densities of this species mandate range-wide conservation prioritization. Two efforts for range-wide snow leopard conservation planning have been conducted based on expert opinion, but both were constrained by limited knowledge and the difficulty of evaluating complex processes, such as connectivity across large landscapes. Here, we compile > 6000 snow leopard occurrence records from across its range and corresponding environmental covariates to build a model of global snow leopard habitat suitability. Using spatial prioritization tools, we identi!ed seven large continuous habitat patches as global snow leopard Landscape Conservation Units (LCUs). Each LCU faces differing threat levels from poaching, anthropogenic development, and climate change. We identi!ed ten po- tential inter-LCU linkages, and centrality analysis indicated that Tianshan-Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakorum, Altai, and the linkage between them play a critical role in maintaining the global snow leopard habitat connectivity.
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Mishra, C. (2000). Socio-economic transition and wildlife conservation in the Indian Trans-Himalaya. Journal of the Bombay Natural History Society, 97(1), 25–32.
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