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Nawaz, M. A., Khan, B. U., Mahmood, A., Younas, M., Din, J. U, Sutherland, C. |
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An empirical demonstration of the effect of study design on density estimations |
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Journal Article |
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2021 |
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Nature |
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11 |
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13104 |
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1-9 |
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The simultaneous development of technology (e.g. camera traps) and statistical methods, particularly spatially capture–recapture (SCR), has improved monitoring of large mammals in recent years. SCR estimates are known to be sensitive to sampling design, yet existing recommendations about trap spacing and coverage are often not achieved, particularly for sampling wide-ranging and rare species in landscapes that allow for limited accessibility. Consequently, most camera trap studies on large wide-ranging carnivores relies on convenience or judgmental sampling, and often yields compromised results. This study attempts to highlight the importance of carefully considered sampling design for large carnivores that, because of low densities and elusive behavior, are challenging to monitor. As a motivating example, we use two years of snow leopard camera trapping data from the same areas in the high mountains of Pakistan but with vastly different camera configurations, to demonstrate that estimates of density and space use are indeed sensitive to the trapping array. A compact design, one in which cameras were placed much closer together than generally recommended and therefore have lower spatial coverage, resulted in fewer individuals observed, but more recaptures, and estimates of density and space use were inconsistent with expectations for the region. In contrast, a diffuse design, one with larger spacing and spatial coverage and more consistent with general recommendations, detected more individuals, had fewer recaptures, but generated estimates of density and space use that were in line with expectations. Researchers often opt for compact camera configurations while monitoring wide-ranging and rare species, in an attempt to maximize the encounter probabilities. We empirically demonstrate the potential for biases when sampling a small area approximately the size of a single home range—this arises from exposing fewer individuals than deemed sufficient for estimation. The smaller trapping array may also underestimate density by significantly inflating ?. On the other hand, larger trapping array with fewer detectors and poor design induces uncertainties in the estimates. We conclude that existing design recommendations have limited utility on practical grounds for devising feasible sampling designs for large ranging species, and more research on SCR designs is required that allows for integrating biological and habitat traits of large carnivores in sampling framework. We also suggest that caution should be exercised when there is a reliance on convenience sampling. |
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1642 |
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Nawaz, M. A., Khan, B. U., Mahmood, A., Younas, M., Din, J. U, Sutherland, C. |
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Title |
An empirical demonstration of the effect of study design on density estimations |
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Journal Article |
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2021 |
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Nature |
Abbreviated Journal |
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11 |
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13104 |
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1-9 |
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Abstract |
The simultaneous development of technology (e.g. camera traps) and statistical methods, particularly spatially capture–recapture (SCR), has improved monitoring of large mammals in recent years. SCR estimates are known to be sensitive to sampling design, yet existing recommendations about trap spacing and coverage are often not achieved, particularly for sampling wide-ranging and rare species in landscapes that allow for limited accessibility. Consequently, most camera trap studies on large wide-ranging carnivores relies on convenience or judgmental sampling, and often yields compromised results. This study attempts to highlight the importance of carefully considered sampling design for large carnivores that, because of low densities and elusive behavior, are challenging to monitor. As a motivating example, we use two years of snow leopard camera trapping data from the same areas in the high mountains of Pakistan but with vastly different camera configurations, to demonstrate that estimates of density and space use are indeed sensitive to the trapping array. A compact design, one in which cameras were placed much closer together than generally recommended and therefore have lower spatial coverage, resulted in fewer individuals observed, but more recaptures, and estimates of density and space use were inconsistent with expectations for the region. In contrast, a diffuse design, one with larger spacing and spatial coverage and more consistent with general recommendations, detected more individuals, had fewer recaptures, but generated estimates of density and space use that were in line with expectations. Researchers often opt for compact camera configurations while monitoring wide-ranging and rare species, in an attempt to maximize the encounter probabilities. We empirically demonstrate the potential for biases when sampling a small area approximately the size of a single home range—this arises from exposing fewer individuals than deemed sufficient for estimation. The smaller trapping array may also underestimate density by significantly inflating |
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SLT @ jeffb @ |
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1652 |
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Salvatori, M., Tenan, S., Oberosler, V., Augugliaro, C., Christe, P., Groff, C., Krofel, M., Zimmermann, F., Rovero, F. |
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Co-occurrence of snow leopard, wolf and Siberian ibex under livestock encroachment into protected areas across the Mongolian Altai |
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2021 |
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Biological Conservatio |
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261 |
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109294 |
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1-14 |
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Camera-trapping, Panthera uncia, Canis lupus, Capra sibirica, Occupancy, Human-wildlife conflicts, Activity pattern |
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In countries such as Mongolia, where globalization of the cashmere market has spurred herders to massively increase their livestock numbers, an important conservation concern is the effect of livestock encroachment on wildlife. This is especially important inside protected areas (PAs), which often represent the last refugia for threatened large mammals. We used camera-traps to sample four areas with different protection status across the Mongolian Altai Mountains, and targeted a predator-prey system composed of livestock, one large herbivore, the Siberian ibex, and two large carnivores, the snow leopard and the wolf. To determine the effect of livestock on habitat use by the wild species and their spatio-temporal co-occurrence we applied an occupancy framework explicitly developed for modelling interacting species. We recorded a widespread presence of domestic animals in the PAs, and observed avoidance of sites used by livestock by snow leopard and ibex, while wolves tended to co-occur with it. Snow leopard and ibex showed clear mutual co-occurrence, indicating a tight predator-prey relationship. Results provide evidence that, at the scale of sites sampled primarily to maximise snow leopard detections, grazing livestock interferes with wild species by inducing avoidance in snow leopards, and attraction in wolves. We suggest that (1) PAs management should enforce real grazing limitations on the ground, especially in the core areas of the parks; (2) new policies incorporating wildlife conservation into government subsidies to pastoralists should be envisaged, to prevent increasing displacement of snow leopards and ibex; (3) as wolves co- occurred with livestock, with the potential for human-wildlife conflicts, we encourage the use of a set of prevention techniques to mitigate livestock depredation. |
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SLN @ rakhee @ |
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1659 |
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Rode, J., Lambert, C., Marescot, L., Chaix, B., Beesau, J., Bastian, S., Kyrbashev, J., Cabanat, A.L. |
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Population monitoring of snow leopards using camera trapping in Naryn State Nature Reserve, Kyrgyzstan, between 2016 and 2019 |
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2021 |
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Global Ecology and Conservation |
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31 |
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e01850 |
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1-6 |
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Snow leopard, camera trapping, Citizen science, Kyrgyzstan |
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Four field seasons of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) camera trapping inside Naryn State Nature Reserve, Kyrgyzstan, performed thanks to citizen science expeditions, allowed detecting a minimal population of five adults, caught every year with an equilibrated sex ratio (1.5:1) and reproduction: five cubs or subadults have been identified from three litters of two different females. Crossings were observed one to three times a year, in front of most camera traps, and several times a month in front of one of them. Overlap of adults’ minimal territories was observed in front of several camera traps, regardless of their sex. Significant snow leopard presence was detected in the buffer area and at Ulan area which is situated at the reserve border. To avoid poaching on this apex predator and its preys, extending the more stringent protection measures of the core zone to both the Southern buffer area and land adjacent to Ulan is recommended. |
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1660 |
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Atzeni, L., Cushman, S. A., Wang, J., Riordan, P., Shi, K., Bauman, D. |
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Evidence of spatial genetic structure in a snow leopard population from Gansu, China |
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2021 |
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Understanding the spatial structure of genetic diversity provides insights into a populations’ genetic status and enables assessment of its capacity to counteract the effects of genetic drift. Such knowledge is particularly scarce for the snow leopard, a conservation flagship species of Central Asia mountains. Focusing on a snow leopard population in the Qilian mountains of Gansu Province, China, we characterised the spatial genetic patterns by incorporating spatially explicit indices of diversity and multivariate analyses, based on different inertia levels of Principal Component Analysis (PCA). We compared two datasets differing in the number of loci and individuals. We found that genetic patterns were significantly spatially structured and were characterised by a broad geographical division coupled with a fine-scale cline of differentiation. Genetic admixture was detected in two adjoining core areas characterised by higher effective population size and allelic diversity, compared to peripheral localities. The power to detect significant spatial relationships depended primarily on the number of loci, and secondarily on the number of PCA axes. Spatial patterns and indices of diversity highlighted the cryptic structure of snow leopard genetic diversity, likely driven by its ability to disperse over large distances. In combination, the species’ low allelic richness and large dispersal ability result in weak genetic differentiation related to major geographical features and isolation by distance. This study illustrates how cryptic genetic patterns can be investigated and analysed at a fine spatial scale, providing insights into the spatially variable isolation effects of both geographic distance and landscape resistance. |
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SLN @ rakhee @ |
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1661 |
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Oberosler, V., Tenan, S., Groff, C., Krofel, M., Augugliaro, C., Munkhtsog, B., Rovero, F. |
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First spatially‐explicit density estimate for a snow leopard population in the Altai Mountains |
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2021 |
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Biodiversity and Conservation |
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15 |
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Camera trapping · Conservation · Abundance · Felids · Activity range · Mongolia · Panthera uncia · Spatial capture-recapture |
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The snow leopard Panthera uncia is an elusive and globally-threatened apex predator occurring in the mountain ranges of central Asia. As with other large carnivores, gaps in data on its distribution and abundance still persist. Moreover, available density estimates are often based on inadequate sampling designs or analytical approaches. Here, we used camera trapping across a vast mountainous area (area of the sampling frame 850 km2; analysed habitat extent 2600 km2) and spatially-explicit capture-recapture (SECR) models to provide, to our knowledge, the first robust snow leopard population density estimate for the Altai Mountains. This region is considered one of the most important conservation areas for snow leopards, representing a vast portion of suitable habitat and a key ecological corridor. We also provide estimates of the scale parameter (σ) that reflects ranging behaviour (activity range) and baseline encounter probability, and investigated potential drivers of density and related parameters by assessing their associations with anthropogenic and environmental factors. Sampling yielded 9729 images of snow leopards corresponding to 224 independent detections that belonged to a minimum of 23 identified adult individuals. SECR analysis resulted in an overall density of 1.31 individuals/100 km2 (1.15%–1.50 95% CI), which was positively correlated with terrain slope. This estimate falls within the mid-values of the range of density estimates for the species globally. We estimated significantly different activity range size for females and males (79 and 329 km2, respectively). Base- line encounter probability was negatively associated with anthropogenic activity. Our study contributes to on-going efforts to produce robust global estimates of population abundance for this top carnivore. |
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1662 |
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Pal, R., Sutherland, C., Qureshi, Q., Sathyakumar, S. |
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Landscape connectivity and population density of snow leopards across a multi-use landscape in Western Himalaya |
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2021 |
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Animal Conservation |
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Human modification and habitat fragmentation significantly impact large carnivores requiring large, connected habitats to persist in a landscape. Understanding species responses to such change and the protection of critical areas and connectivity they provide is essential when planning effective conservation strategies. Our study examines the spatial distribution of the snow leopard (Panthera uncia) across a gradient of protection status, anthropogenic pressures and habitat types in the Gangotri landscape (~4600 km2), Western Himalaya. Using spatial capture-recapture modeling, we analyzed a 4-year camera trapping dataset (2015–2019) to assess the relationship between snow leopard movement and topography and identified the conducible areas for facilitating movement across the landscape. Snow leopard density was positively associated with elevation and slope, and was higher in protected areas (summer: 1.42 SE 0.02/100km2; winter 2.15 SE 0.03 vs. summer: 0.4 SE 0.01; winter: 0.6 SE 0.01 for unprotected areas). Precipitous terrain and several prominent mountain peaks were found to be resistant to snow leopard movement. Even with a range of human activities inside protected areas, the higher density suggests a positive impact of protection. Density-weighted connectivity showed that conducible areas are available between the Gangotri landscape and the adjacent protected areas. However, compared to protected area, these areas are relatively less used and require attention for management. We recommend regulating human activities and co-managing pastures with local communities to revive prey base outside protected areas, especially in corridors, to ensure such areas are functionally conducive. Our study provides a framework to collectively quantitate the spatial pattern of abundance, distribution and connectivity. Our approach has broad applicability for policymakers to develop strategic plans for balancing the conservation of species, and other land uses in a multi-use landscape. |
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1663 |
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Rashid, W., Shi, J., Rahim, I. U., Qasim, M., Baloch, M. N., Bohnett, E., Yang, F., Khan, I., Ahmad, B. |
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Modelling Potential Distribution of Snow Leopards in Pamir, Northern Pakistan: Implications for Human–Snow Leopard Conflicts |
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2021 |
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Sustainability |
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13 |
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13229 |
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1-15 |
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habitat fragmentation; habitat suitability; land use/cover change; Panthera uncia; MaxEnt model |
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The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is a cryptic and rare big cat inhabiting Asia’s remote and harsh elevated areas. Its population has decreased across the globe for various reasons, includ |
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SLN @ rakhee @ |
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1664 |
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Thapa, K., Schmitt, N., Pradhan, N. M. B., Acharya, H. R., Rayamajhi, S. |
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No silver bullet? Snow leopard prey selection in Mt. Kangchenjunga, Nepal |
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2021 |
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Ecology and Evolution |
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1-13 |
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blue sheep, common leopard, fecal, genetic analysis, snow leopard, wolf, yak |
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In this study, we investigated the impact of domestic and wild prey availability on snow leopard prey preference in the Kangchenjunga Conservation Area of eastern Nepal-a region where small domestic livestock are absent and small wild ungulate prey are present. We took a comprehensive approach that combined fecal genetic sampling, macro- and microscopic analyses of snow leopard diets, and direct observation of blue sheep and livestock in the KCA. Out of the collected 88 putative snow leopard scat samples from 140 transects (290km) in 27 (4x4km2) sampling grid cells, 73 (83%) were confirmed to be from snow leopard. The genetic analysis accounted for 19 individual snow leopards (10 males and 9 females), with a mean population size estimate of 24 (95% CI: 19-29) and an average density of 3.9 snow leopards/100km2 within 609km2. The total available prey biomass of blue sheep and yak was estimated at 355,236 kg (505 kg yak/km2 and 78kg blue sheep/km2). From the available prey biomass, we estimated snow leopards consumed 7% annually, which comprised wild prey (49%), domestic livestock (45%). and 6% unidentified items. the estimated 47,736 kg blue sheep biomass gives a snow leopard-to-blue sheep ratio of 1:59 on a weight basis. The high preference of snow leopard to domestic livestock appears to be influenced by a much smaller available biomass of wild prey then in other regions of Nepal (e.g., 78kg/km2 in the KCA compared with a range of 200-300 kg/km2 in other regions of Nepal?. Along with livestock insurance scheme improvement, there needs to be a focus on improved livestock guarding, predator-proof corrals as well as engaging and educating local people to be citizen scientists on the importance of snow leopard conservation, involving them in long-term monitoring programs and promotion of ecotourism. |
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1665 |
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Thapa, K., Jackson, R., Gurung, L, Acharya, H. B., Gurung, R. K., |
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Applying the double observer methodology for assessing blue sheep population size in Nar Phu valley, Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal |
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2021 |
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Wildlife Biology |
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1-11 |
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blue sheep, density estimation, double observer counts, Nepal, Panthera uncia, prey abundance, Pseudois nayaur, snow leopard, viewshed mapping |
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This study was undertaken in spring, 2019 to assess the applicability of the double-observer survey method for estimating blue sheep Pseudois nayaur abundance in Nar-Phu valley of Manang District located in Annapurna Conservation Area of northern Nepal. Since counting large mammals in rugged mountain habitat poses a special challenge, we tested the efficacy of the double observer method for generating robust population estimates for this important protected area. The overall detection probability for observers (O1 and O2) was 0.94 and 0.91 for a total of 106 groups comprised of 2059 individual blue sheep. We estimated the area’s blue sheep population at 2070 (SE ± 168.77; 95% CI 2059–2405) for the 246.2 km2 of sampled habitat. We determined blue sheep to be widely distributed within the study area with a mean density of 8.4 individuals per km2 based on a total study area of 246.2 km2. We discuss demographic population structure and identify limitations when applying the double observer approach, along with recommending viewshed mapping for ensuring more robust density estimates of mountain-dwelling ungulates like blue sheep or ibex that inhabit extremely heterogeneous terrain which strongly influences sighting distances and overall animal detection rates. |
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