Abstract: The cycle of livestock depredation and retaliatory killing constitutes a major threat to large carnivores worldwide and imposes considerable hardships on human communities. Mitigation efforts are often undertaken with little knowledge of ecological underpinnings and patterns of depredation, limiting conservationists' ability to develop, prioritize, and evaluate solutions. Carnivore detection and depredation data from interviews in affected communities may help address this gap, but such data are often prone to false-positive uncertainty. To address these challenges in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan we collected snow leopard, lynx, wolf, and bear detection and depredation reports from local communities via semi-structured interviews. We used a novel hierarchical multi-species multi-state occupancy model that accounted for potential false-positives to investigate carnivore site use and depredation concurrently with respondents' apparent vulnerability to that risk. Estimated false-positive probabilities were small, but failure to account for them overstated site use probabilities and depredation risk for all species. Although individual vulnerability was low, depredation was nonetheless commonplace. Carnivore site use was driven by clear habitat associations, but we did not identify any clearly important large-scale spatial correlates of depredation risk despite considerable spatial variation in that risk. Respondents who sheltered livestock in household corrals reinforced with wire mesh were less likely to report snow leopard depredations. Reducing depredation and retaliation at adequately large scales in the Pamirs will likely require a portfolio of species-specific strategies, including widespread proactive corral improvements. Our approach expanded inference on the often-cryptic processes surrounding human-carnivore conflict even though structured wildlife data were scarce.

Abstract: There is an increasing emphasis in conservation strategies for large carnivores on facilitating their coexistence with humans. Justification for coexistence strategies should be based on a quantitative assessment of currently remaining large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes. An essential part of a carnivore’s coexistence strategy has to rely on its prey. In this research, we studied snow leopards Panthera uncia whose habitat mainly comprises human-dominated, unprotected areas, to understand how a large carnivore and its primary prey, the bharal Pseudois nayaur, could coexist with human land use activities in a large proportion of its range. Using a combination of livestock census, camera trapping and wildlife surveys, across a broad gradient of livestock grazing intensity in a 363 000 km2 landscape on the Tibetan Plateau, we found no evidence of livestock grazing impacts on snow leopard habitat use, bharal density and spatial distribution, even though livestock density was 13 times higher than bharal density. Bharal were found to prefer utilizing more rugged habitats at higher elevations with lower grass forage conditions, whereas livestock dominated in flat valleys at lower elevations with higher productivity, especially during the resource-scarce season. These findings suggest that the spatial niche separation between bharal and livestock, together with snow leopards’ specialized bharal diet, minimized conflicts and allowed snow leopards and bharal to coexist in landscapes dominated by livestock grazing. In recent years, reduced hunting and nomadic herder’s lifestyle changes towards permanent residence may have further reinforced this spatial separation. Our results indicated that, for developing conservation strategies for large carnivores, the niche of their prey in relation to human land-use is a key variable that needs to be evaluated.