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Kachel, S., Anderson, K., Shokirov, Q. (2022). Predicting carnivore habitat use and livestock depredation risk with false-positive multi-state occupancy models. Biological Conservation, 271(109588), 1–10.
Abstract: The cycle of livestock depredation and retaliatory killing constitutes a major threat to large carnivores worldwide and imposes considerable hardships on human communities. Mitigation efforts are often undertaken with little knowledge of ecological underpinnings and patterns of depredation, limiting conservationists' ability to develop, prioritize, and evaluate solutions. Carnivore detection and depredation data from interviews in affected communities may help address this gap, but such data are often prone to false-positive uncertainty. To address these challenges in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan we collected snow leopard, lynx, wolf, and bear detection and depredation reports from local communities via semi-structured interviews. We used a novel hierarchical multi-species multi-state occupancy model that accounted for potential false-positives to investigate carnivore site use and depredation concurrently with respondents' apparent vulnerability to that risk. Estimated false-positive probabilities were small, but failure to account for them overstated site use probabilities and depredation risk for all species. Although individual vulnerability was low, depredation was nonetheless commonplace. Carnivore site use was driven by clear habitat associations, but we did not identify any clearly important large-scale spatial correlates of depredation risk despite considerable spatial variation in that risk. Respondents who sheltered livestock in household corrals reinforced with wire mesh were less likely to report snow leopard depredations. Reducing depredation and retaliation at adequately large scales in the Pamirs will likely require a portfolio of species-specific strategies, including widespread proactive corral improvements. Our approach expanded inference on the often-cryptic processes surrounding human-carnivore conflict even though structured wildlife data were scarce.
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Singh, R., Krausman, P. R., Pandey, P., Maheshwari, A., Rawal,
R. S., Sharma, S., Shekhar, S. (2020). Predicting Habitat Suitability of Snow Leopards in the Western
Himalayan Mountains, India. Biology bulletin, 47(6), 655–664.
Abstract: The population of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is declining
across their range, due to poaching, habitat fragmentation, retaliatory killing, and a decrease of wild prey species. Obtaining information on rare and cryptic predators living in remote and rugged terrain is important for making conservation and management strategies. We used the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) ecological niche modeling framework to predict the potential habitat of snow leopards across the western Himalayan region, India. The model was developed using 34 spatial species occurrence points in the western Himalaya, and 26 parameters including, prey species distribution, temperature, precipitation, land use and land cover (LULC), slope, aspect, terrain ruggedness and altitude. Thirteen variables contributed 98.6% towards predicting the distribution of snow leopards. The area under the curve (AUC) score was high (0.994) for the training data from our model, which indicates pre- dictive ability of the model. The model predicted that there was 42432 km2 of potential habitat for snow leop- ards in the western Himalaya region. Protected status was available for 11247 km2 (26.5%), but the other 31185 km2 (73.5%) of potential habitat did not have any protected status. Thus, our approach is useful for predicting the distribution and suitable habitats and can focus field surveys in selected areas to save resources, increase survey success, and improve conservation efforts for snow leopards. |
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Khanyari, M., Suryawanshi, K. R., Milner-Gulland, E. J., Dickinson, E., Khara, A., Rana, R. S., Vineer, H. R., Morgan, E. R. (2021). Predicting Parasite Dynamics in Mixed-Use Trans-Himalayan Pastures to Underpin Management of Cross-Transmission Between Livestock and Bharal. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 8(714241), 1–21.
Abstract: The complexities of multi-use landscapes require sophisticated approaches to addressing disease transmission risks. We explored gastro-intestinal nematode (GINs) infections in the North India Trans-Himalayas through a socio-ecological lens, integrating parasite transmission modelling with field surveys and local knowledge, and evaluated the likely effectiveness of potential interventions. Bharal (blue sheep; Pseudois nayaur), a native wild herbivore, and livestock share pasture year-round and livestock commonly show signs of GINs infection. While both wild and domestic ungulates had GINs infections, egg counts indicated significantly higher parasite burdens in bharal than livestock. However, due to higher livestock densities, they contributed more to the total count of eggs and infective larvae on pasture. Herders also reported health issues in their sheep and goats consistent with parasite infections. Model simulations suggested that pasture infectivity in this system is governed by historical pasture use and gradually accumulated larval development during the summer, with no distinct short-term flashpoints for transmission. The most effective intervention was consequently predicted to be early-season parasite suppression in livestock using temperature in spring as a cue. A 1-month pause in egg output from livestock could lead to a reduction in total annual availability of infective larvae on pasture of 76%, potentially benefitting the health of both livestock and bharal. Modelling suggested that climate change over the past 33 years has led to no overall change in GINs transmission potential, but an increase in the relative influence of temperature over precipitation in driving pasture infectivity. Our study provides a transferable multi-pronged approach to investigating disease transmission, in order to support herders’ livelihoods and conserve wild ungulates.
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Islam, M., Sahana, M., Areendran, G., Jamir, C., Raj, K., Sajjad, H. (2023). Prediction of potential habitat suitability of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) and niche overlap in the parts of western Himalayan region. Geo: Geography and Environment, 10(e00121), 1–15.
Abstract: The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are the inhabitants of remote areas at higher altitudes with extreme geographic and climatic conditions. The habitats of these least-studied species are crucial for sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem. We employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model to predict the potential habitat suitability of snow leopards and blue sheep and extracted common overlapped niches. For this, we utilised presence location, bio-climatic and environmental variables, and correlation analysis was applied to reduce the negative impact of multicollinearity. A total of 134 presence locations of snow leopards and 64 for blue sheep were selected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). The annual mean temperature (Bio1) was found to be the most useful and highly influential factor to predict the potential habitat suitability of snow leopards. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and isothermality were the major influencing factors for blue sheep habitat suitability. Highly influential bio-climatic, topographic and environmental variables were integrated to construct the model for predicting habitat suitability. The area under the curve (AUC) values for snow leopard (0.87) and blue sheep (0.82) showed that the models are under good representation. Of the total area investigated, 47% was suitable for the blue sheep and 38% for the snow leopards. Spatial habitat assessment revealed that nearly 11% area from the predicted suitable habitat class of both species was spatially matched (overlapped), 48.6% area was unsuitable under niche overlap and 40.5% area was spatially mismatched niche. The presence of snow leopards and blue sheep in some highly suitable areas was not observed, yet such areas have the potential to sustain these elusive species. The other geographical regions interested in exploring habitat suitability may find the methodological framework adopted in this study useful for formulating an effective conservation policy and management strategy.
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Yu, C., Ding, N., Li, Y., Liu, Y, Lyu, Z., Munkhtsog, B., Wuliji., Ma, Z., Se, Y., Pei, W., Gao, Y., Zhang, Y., Han, Q., Shi, K. (2022). Preliminary results from applying satellite-tracking on snow leopards for the first time in China. Global Ecology and Conservation, 40(e02346), 1–7.
Abstract: The lack of snow leopards telemetry studies in China has hampered researchers in studying the movement ecology and home range sizes of snow leopards, the knowledge gap of which has affected effective planning and improvement of snow leopard protected areas in China. In 2021, we conducted China’s first snow leopard satellite-tracking project in Qilianshan National Park, China, one of the most representative mountain areas of snow leopard habitat. The outcomes of the research aims to apply gained understanding on snow leopard home range to enhance management and planning of snow leopard protected area. Here we summarize the preliminary home range results on the first three satellite-tracked snow leopards in China. The three snow leopards were followed between 3 and 6 months yielding a total of 7845 GPS locations. Using
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Shao, X., Lu, Q., Xiong, M., Bu, H., Shi, X., Wang, D., Zhao, J., Li, S., Yao, M. (2021). Prey partitioning and livestock consumption in the world’s richest large carnivore assemblage. Current Biology, 31, 4887–4897.
Abstract: Large mammalian carnivores have undergone catastrophic declines during the Anthropocene across the world. Despite their pivotal roles as apex predators in food webs and ecosystem dynamics, few detailed di- etary datasets of large carnivores exist, prohibiting deep understanding of their coexistence and persistence in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we present fine-scaled, quantitative trophic interactions among sym- patric carnivores from three assemblages in the Mountains of Southwest China, a global biodiversity hotspot harboring the world’s richest large-carnivore diversity, derived from DNA metabarcoding of 1,097 fecal sam- ples. These assemblages comprise a large-carnivore guild ranging from zero to five species along with two mesocarnivore species. We constructed predator-prey food webs for each assemblage and identified 95 vertebrate prey taxa and 260 feeding interactions in sum. Each carnivore species consumed 6–39 prey taxa, and dietary diversity decreased with increased carnivore body mass across guilds. Dietary partitioning was more evident between large-carnivore and mesocarnivore guilds, yet different large carnivores showed divergent proportional utilization of different-sized prey correlating with their own body masses. Large car- nivores particularly selected livestock in Tibetan-dominated regions, where the indigenous people show high tolerance toward wild predators. Our results suggest that dietary niche partitioning and livestock subsidies facilitate large-carnivore sympatry and persistence and have key implications for sustainable conservation promoting human-carnivore coexistence.
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Li, J., Xue, Y., Hacker, C. E., Zhang, Y., Li, Y., Cong, W., Jin, L., Li, G., Wu, B., Li, D., Zhang, Y. (2021). Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province, China. Ecology and Evolution, (11), 17202–17218.
Abstract: Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km2 under current conditions and 228,997 km2 under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km2 and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.
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Arias, M., Coals, P., Ardiantiono, Elves-Powell, J., Rizzolo, J. B., Ghoddousi, A., Boron, V., da Silva, M., Naude, V., Williams, V., Poudel, S., Loveridge, A., Payan, E., Suryawanshi, K., Dickman, A. (2024). Reflecting on the role of human-felid conflict and local use in big cat trade. Conservation Science and Practice, 6(e13030), 1–7.
Abstract: Illegal trade in big cat (Panthera spp.) body parts is a prominent topic in scientific and public discourses concerning wildlife conservation. While illegal trade is generally acknowledged as a threat to big cat species, we suggest that two enabling factors have, to date, been under-considered. To that end, we discuss the roles of human-felid conflict, and “local” use in illegal trade in big cat body parts. Drawing examples from across species and regions, we look at generalities, contextual subtleties, ambiguities, and definitional complexities. We caution against underestimating the extent of “local” use of big cats and highlight the potential of conflict killings to supply body parts.
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Khanal, G., Mishra, C., Suryawanshi, K. R. (2020). Relative influence of wild prey and livestock abundance on
carnivore-caused livestock predation. Ecology and Evolution, , 1–11.
Abstract: Conservation conflict over livestock depredation is one of the
key drivers of large mammalian carnivore declines worldwide. Mitigating this conflict requires strategies informed by reliable knowledge of factors influencing livestock depredation. Wild prey and livestock abundance are critical factors influencing the extent of livestock depredation. We compared whether the extent of livestock predation by snow leopards Panthera uncia differed in relation to densities of wild prey, livestock, and snow leopards at two sites in Shey Phoksundo National Park, Nepal. We used camera trap-based spatially explicit capture–recapture models to estimate snow leopard density; double-observer surveys to estimate the density of their main prey species, the blue sheep Pseudois nayaur; and interview-based household surveys to estimate livestock population and number of livestock killed by snow leopards. The proportion of livestock lost per household was seven times higher in Upper Dolpa, the site which had higher snow leopard density (2.51 snow leopards per 100 km2) and higher livestock density (17.21 livestock per km2) compared to Lower Dolpa (1.21 snow leopards per 100 km2; 4.5 livestock per km2). The wild prey density was similar across the two sites (1.81 and 1.57 animals per km2 in Upper and Lower Dolpa, respectively). Our results suggest that livestock depredation level may largely be determined by the abundances of the snow leopards and livestock and predation levels on livestock can vary even at similar levels of wild prey density. In large parts of the snow leopard range, livestock production is indispensable to local livelihoods and livestock population is expected to increase to meet the demand of cashmere. Hence, we recommend that any efforts to increase livestock populations or conservation initiatives aimed at recovering or increasing snow leopard population be accompanied by better herding practices (e.g., predator-proof corrals) to protect livestock from snow leopard. |
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Rashid, W., Shi, J., Rahim, I. U., Dong, S., Ahmad, L. (2020). Research trends and management options in human-snow leopard conflict. Biological Conservation, 242(108413), 1–10.
Abstract: Conservation of the snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is challenging because of its threatened status and increase in human-snow leopard conflict (HSC). The area of occupancy of the snow leopard comprises mountainous regions of Asia that are confronted with various environmental pressures including climate change. HSCs have increased with a burgeoning human population and economic activities that enhance competition between human and snow leopard or its preys. Here we systematically review the peer-reviewed literature from 1994 to 2018 in Web of Science, Google Scholar, Science Direct and PubMed (30 articles), to evaluate the current state of scholarship about HSCs and their management. We determine: 1) the spatio-temporal distribution of relevant researches; 2) the methodologies to assess HSCs; 3) and evaluate existing interventions for conflict management; and 4) the potential options for HSC management. The aim of the current study is thus to identify key research gaps and future research requirements. Of the articles in this review, 60% evaluated the mitigation of HSCs, while only 37% provided actionable and decisive results. Compensation programs and livestock management strategies had high success rates for mitigating HSCs through direct or community-managed interventions. Further research is required to evaluate the efficacy of existing HSC mitigation strategies, many of which, while recommended, lack proper support. In spite of the progress made in HSC studies, research is needed to examine ecological and sociocultural context of HSCs. We suggest future work focus on rangeland management for HSC mitigation, thus ultimately fostering a co-existence between human and snow leopard.
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