Abstract: Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km2 under current conditions and 228,997 km2 under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km2 and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.

Abstract: Uncia uncia is one of the rare large species on the brink of extinction in Felidae in the world, and inhabit only the Central Asian mountains. It is said that there are currently only 4500-7300 Uncia uncia surviving. During the period from September 2004 to July 2005, the habitat selection of Uncia uncia was investigated in some mountains in Xinjiang, including the eastern Tianshan Mountains, Beita Mountains, Altay Mounts and Mount Tumor National Nature Reserve. In several months of fieldwork, we got 171 sign samples of Uncia uncia and 123 random samples in total. Five habitat features, i.e., the elevation, topographic features, vegetation type, grazing status and ruggedness, are selected to compare the difference of selectivity of the Uncia uncia habitat selection. The Chi-square goodness-of-fit test and the binomial test are used to check the significance of Uncia uncia habitat selection, and the principal component analysis is used to find the primary factors in in the selection. The result s are as follows : (1) Uncia uncia selected all kinds of the habitat types , especially the elevation , topography , vegetation types and ruggedness ; (2) Ruggedness and the vegetation types are the preliminary factors for the habitat selection. Topography is the secondary factor ; (3) Uncia uncia prefer to inhabit in the rugged habitat s with moderate shrubberies , and they also like to leave signs in valley bottoms rather than hillsides.

Abstract: The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are the inhabitants of remote areas at higher altitudes with extreme geographic and climatic conditions. The habitats of these least-studied species are crucial for sustaining the Himalayan ecosystem. We employed the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model to predict the potential habitat suitability of snow leopards and blue sheep and extracted common overlapped niches. For this, we utilised presence location, bio-climatic and environmental variables, and correlation analysis was applied to reduce the negative impact of multicollinearity. A total of 134 presence locations of snow leopards and 64 for blue sheep were selected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). The annual mean temperature (Bio1) was found to be the most useful and highly influential factor to predict the potential habitat suitability of snow leopards. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and isothermality were the major influencing factors for blue sheep habitat suitability. Highly influential bio-climatic, topographic and environmental variables were integrated to construct the model for predicting habitat suitability. The area under the curve (AUC) values for snow leopard (0.87) and blue sheep (0.82) showed that the models are under good representation. Of the total area investigated, 47% was suitable for the blue sheep and 38% for the snow leopards. Spatial habitat assessment revealed that nearly 11% area from the predicted suitable habitat class of both species was spatially matched (overlapped), 48.6% area was unsuitable under niche overlap and 40.5% area was spatially mismatched niche. The presence of snow leopards and blue sheep in some highly suitable areas was not observed, yet such areas have the potential to sustain these elusive species. The other geographical regions interested in exploring habitat suitability may find the methodological framework adopted in this study useful for formulating an effective conservation policy and management strategy.