Abstract: Human–wildlife conflict arising from livestock-losses to large carnivores is an important challenge faced by conservation. Theory of prey–predator interactions suggests that revival of wild prey populations can reduce predator’s dependence on livestock in multiple-use landscapes. We explore whether 10-years of conservation efforts to revive wild prey could reduce snow leopard’s Panthera uncia consumption of livestock in the coupled human-and-natural Trans-Himalayan ecosystem of northern India. Starting in 2001, concerted conservation efforts at one site (intervention) attempted recovery of wild- prey populations by creating livestock-free reserves, accompanied with other incentives (e.g. insurance, vigilant herding). Another site, 50km away, was monitored as status quo without any interventions. Prey remains in snow leopard scats were examined periodically at five-year intervals between 2002 and 2012 to determine any temporal shift in diet at both sites to evaluate the effectiveness of conservation interventions. Consumption of livestock increased at the status quo site, while it decreased at the intervention-site. At the intervention-site, livestock-consumption reduced during 2002–2007 (by 17%, p = 0.06); this effect was sustained during the next five-year interval, and it was accompanied by a persistent increase in wild prey populations. Here we also noted increased predator populations, likely due to immigration into the study area. Despite the increase in the predator population, there was no increase in livestock-consumption. In contrast, under status quo, dependence on livestock increased during both five-year intervals (by 7%, p=0.08, and by 16%, p=0.01, respectively). These contrasts between the trajectories of the two sites suggest that livestock-loss can potentially be reduced through the revival of wild prey. Further, accommodating counter-factual scenarios may be an important step to infer whether conservation efforts achieve their targets, or not.

Abstract: Mammalian carnivores are key to our understanding of ecosystem dynamics, but most of them are threatened with extinction all over the world. Conservating large carnivores is often an arduous task considering the complex relationship between humans and carnivores, and the diverse range and reasons of threats they face. Climate change is exacerbating the situation further by interacting with most existing threats and amplifying their impacts. The Mountains of Central and South Asia are warming twice as rapidly as the rest of the northern hemisphere. There has been limited research on the effect of climate change and other variables on large carnivores. We studied the patterns in spatio-temporal distribution of three sympatric carnivores, common leopard, snow leopard, and Asiatic black bear in Kishtwar high altitude National Park, a protected area in the Great Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir. We investigated the effects of key habitat characteristics as well as human disturbance and climatic factors to understand the spatio-temporal change in their distributions between the early 1990s and around the year 2016–2017. We found a marked contraction in the distribution of the three carnivores between the two time periods. While snow leopard shifted upwards and further away from human settlements, common leopard and Asiatic black bear suffered higher rates of local extinctions at higher altitudes and shifted to lower areas with more vegetation, even if that brought them closer to settlements. We also found some evidence that snow leopards were less likely to have faced range contraction in areas with permanent glaciers. Our study underscores the importance of climate adaptive conservation practices for long-term management in the Greater Himalaya, including the monitoring of changes in habitat, and space-use patterns by human communities and wildlife.

Abstract: Snow leopard ecology, distribution and abundance in Mongolia were studied between 1993 and 1999. I placed VHF and satellite radio-collars on 4 snow leopards, 2 males and 2 females, to determine home ranges, habitat use, movements, and activity. Home ranges of snow leopards in Mongolia were substantially larger than reported elsewhere. Males ranged over 61 – 142 km2 and female 58 to 1,590 km2. Cats had crepuscular activity patterns with daily movements averaging 5.1 km. Intraspecific distances averaged 1.3 km for males to 7.8 km for males. Leopards selected moderately to very-broken habitat with slopes > 20o, in areas containing ibex. Leopard distribution and abundance was determined using sign surveys. Leopard range in Mongolia is approximately 103,000 km2 but cats are not uniformly distributed within that range. High-density areas include the eastern and central Transaltai Gobi and the northern Altai ranges. Relative leopard densities compared well with relative ibex densities on a regional basis. A snow leopard conservation plan was drafted for Mongolia that identifies problems and threats, and provides an action plan. Wild Bactrian camels occur in the Great Gobi National Park (GGNP) and are thought to be declining due to low recruitment. I surveyed camels by jeep and at oases, observing 142 (4.2% young) and 183 (5.3% young) in 1997 and 1998. Current range was estimated at 33,300 km2. Some winter and calving ranges were recently abandoned. Track sizes and tooth ages from skulls were used to assess demographics. A deterministic model was produced that predicts camel extinction within 25 to 50 years under current recruitment rates and population estimates. Gobi brown bears are endemic to Mongolia and may number less than 35. Three population isolates may occur. I collected genetic material from bears at oases using hair traps. Microsatellite analyses of nuclear DNA determined sixteen unique genotypes, only two of which occurred at more than one oases. Genetic diversity was very low with expected heterozygosity = 0.32, and alleles per locus = 2.3. Mitochondrial DNA sequences were compared to other clades of brown bear and found to fall outside of all known lineages.