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Sharma, M., Khanyari, M., Khara, A., Bijoor, A., Mishra, C., Suryawanshi, K. R. (2024). Can livestock grazing dampen density-dependent fluctuations in wild herbivore populations? Journal of Applied Ecology, , 1–12.
Abstract: 1. Conservation policy for the high mountains of Asia increasingly recognises the need to encompass large multi-use landscapes beyond the protected area network. Due to limited long-term research in this region, our understanding of even fundamental processes, such as factors regulating large mammal populations is poor.
2. Understanding the factors that regulate animal populations, especially those generating cyclicity, is a long-standing problem in ecology. Long-term research across multiple taxa (mainly from Europe and North America) has focussed on the relative roles of food and predation in generating cyclicity in population dynamics. It remains unclear how trophic interactions that are influenced by anthropogenic stressors can affect population dynamics in human-modified landscapes.
3. We present a 10-year study to compare the effects of livestock grazing on density-dependent dynamics in two populations of bharal, Pseudois nayaur, in the Himalayas. We combine this with a mechanistic understanding of whether density dependence in these two sites acts predominantly by affecting adult survival or recruitment. We compared and quantified density dependence in the bharal population by fitting Bayesian Gompertz state-space models.
4. We found evidence for negative density dependence which indicates possible cyclic dynamics in the bharal population of the site (Tabo) with low livestock density. The population dynamics of this site were driven by recruited offspring—with a 2-year density-dependent lag effect—rather than adult survival. In the site with high livestock density (Kibber), this density dependence was not detected. We postulate the potential role of excessive grazing by livestock in affecting offspring recruitment, thereby affecting the bharal population in Kibber.
5. Synthesis and applications: Our results suggest that conservation action to facilitate wild herbivore population recovery, such as the development of protected areas and village reserves, needs to account for density-dependent regulation. Sites with trophy hunting require continuous monitoring to understand the effects of density dependence so that appropriate hunting quotas can be formulated.
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Suryawanshi, K. (2011). An encounter in snow. FRONTLINE, 28(10).
Abstract: In the trans-Himalayan region, a conservation effort has reduced conflicts between snow leopards and pastoralists. Photographs & text by author.
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Suryawanshi, K., K. (2011). Sunshine and the Shadow. Hornbill, (April-June), 34–37.
Abstract: Kulbhushansingh Suryawanshi shares an update on his blog which describes snow leopard sightings in Spiti, Himachal Pradesh, while studying the foraging behavior and eating habits of blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur).
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Suryawanshi, K. R., Bhatnagar, Y. V. B., Redpath, S., Mishra, C. (2013). People, predators and perceptions: patterns of livestock depredation by snow leopards and wolves. Journal of Applied Ecology, 50, 550–560.
Abstract: 1. Livestock depredation by large carnivores is an important conservation and economic concern
and conservation management would benefit from a better understanding of spatial variation
and underlying causes of depredation events. Focusing on the endangered snow leopard
Panthera uncia and the wolf Canis lupus, we identify the ecological factors that predispose
areas within a landscape to livestock depredation. We also examine the potential mismatch
between reality and human perceptions of livestock depredation by these carnivores whose
survival is threatened due to persecution by pastoralists.
2. We assessed the distribution of the snow leopard, wolf and wild ungulate prey through field
surveys in the 4000 km2 Upper Spiti Landscape of trans-Himalayan India. We interviewed local
people in all 25 villages to assess the distribution of livestock and peoples’ perceptions of the risk
to livestock from these carnivores. We monitored village-level livestock mortality over a 2-year
period to assess the actual level of livestock depredation. We quantified several possibly influential
independent variables that together captured variation in topography, carnivore abundance
and abundance and other attributes of livestock. We identified the key variables influencing livestock
depredation using multiple logistic regressions and hierarchical partitioning.
3. Our results revealed notable differences in livestock selectivity and ecological correlates of
livestock depredation – both perceived and actual – by snow leopards and wolves. Stocking
density of large-bodied free-ranging livestock (yaks and horses) best explained people’s threat
perception of livestock depredation by snow leopards, while actual livestock depredation was
explained by the relative abundance of snow leopards and wild prey. In the case of wolves,
peoples’ perception was best explained by abundance of wolves, while actual depredation by
wolves was explained by habitat structure.
4. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that (i) human perceptions can be at odds
with actual patterns of livestock depredation, (ii) increases in wild prey populations will intensify
livestock depredation by snow leopards, and prey recovery programmes must be accompanied
by measures to protect livestock, (iii) compensation or insurance programmes should
target large-bodied livestock in snow leopard habitats and (iv) sustained awareness
programmes are much needed, especially for the wolf.
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Kohli, K., Sankaran, M., Suryawanshi, K. R., Mishra, C. (2014). A penny saved is a penny earned: lean season foraging strategy of an alpine ungulate. Animal Behaviour, (92), 93–100.
Abstract: Lean season foraging strategies are critical for the survival of species inhabiting highly seasonal environments
such as alpine regions. However, inferring foraging strategies is often difficult because of
challenges associated with empirically estimating energetic costs and gains of foraging in the field. We
generated qualitative predictions for the relationship between daily winter foraging time, body size and
forage availability for three contrasting foraging strategies including time minimization, energy intake
maximization and net energy maximization. Our model predicts that for animals employing a time
minimization strategy, daily winter foraging time should not change with body size and should increase
with a reduction in forage availability. For energy intake maximization, foraging time should not vary
with either body size or forage availability. In contrast, for a net energy maximization strategy, foraging
time should decrease with increase in body size and with a reduction in forage availability. We contrasted
proportion of daily time spent foraging by bharal, Pseudois nayaur, a dimorphic grazer, across
different body size classes in two high-altitude sites differing in forage availability. Our results indicate
that bharal behave as net energy maximizers during winter. As predicted by the net energy maximization
strategy, daily winter foraging time of bharal declined with increasing body size, and was lower in the
site with low forage availability. Furthermore, as predicted by our model, foraging time declined as the
winter season progressed. We did not find support for the time minimizing or energy intake maximizing
strategies. Our qualitative model uses relative rather than absolute costs and gains of foraging which are
often difficult to estimate in the field. It thus offers a simple way to make informed inferences regarding
animal foraging strategies by contrasting estimates of daily foraging time across gradients of body size
and forage availability.
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Suryawanshi, K. R., Bhatia, S., Bhatnagar, Y. V., Redpath, S., Mishra, C. (2014). Multiscale Factors Affecting Human Attitudes toward Snow Leopards and Wolves. Conservation biology, 00, 1–10.
Abstract: The threat posed by large carnivores to livestock and humans makes peaceful coexistence between
them difficult. Effective implementation of conservation laws and policies depends on the attitudes of local
residents toward the target species. There are many known correlates of human attitudes toward carnivores,
but they have only been assessed at the scale of the individual. Because human societies are organized hierarchically, attitudes are presumably influenced by different factors at different scales of social organization, but this scale dependence has not been examined.We used structured interview surveys to quantitatively assess the attitudes of a Buddhist pastoral community toward snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and wolves (Canis lupus).
We interviewed 381 individuals from 24 villages within 6 study sites across the high-elevation Spiti Valley in
the Indian Trans-Himalaya. We gathered information on key explanatory variables that together captured
variation in individual and village-level socioeconomic factors.We used hierarchical linear models to examine how the effect of these factors on human attitudes changed with the scale of analysis from the individual to the community. Factors significant at the individual level were gender, education, and age of the respondent (for wolves and snow leopards), number of income sources in the family (wolves), agricultural production, and large-bodied livestock holdings (snow leopards). At the community level, the significant factors included the number of smaller-bodied herded livestock killed by wolves and mean agricultural production (wolves) and village size and large livestock holdings (snow leopards). Our results show that scaling up from the individual to higher levels of social organization can highlight important factors that influence attitudes of people toward wildlife and toward formal conservation efforts in general. Such scale-specific information can help managers apply conservation measures at appropriate scales. Our results reiterate the need for conflict management programs to be multipronged.
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Alexander, J., Chen, P., Damerell, P., Youkui, W., Hughes, J., Shi, K., Riordan, P. (2015). Human wildlife conflict involving large carnivores in Qilianshan, China and the minimal paw-print of snow leopards. Biological Conservation, 187, 1–9.
Abstract: In this paper, we assess local perceptions towards snow leopards in North West China using a framework
depicting key conflict domains. We describe the perceived threats posed to humans by the snow leopard
and set them within beliefs and attitudes towards other species within the large carnivore assemblage in
this region. Surveys were conducted in seven villages within Qilianshan National Nature Reserve, Gansu
Province, China, to document reports of snow leopard (Panthera uncia), grey wolf (Canis lupus), Eurasian
lynx (Lynx lynx) and brown bear (Ursus arctos) depredation of livestock, and local attitudes towards each
species. Questionnaire-based interviews were held with 60 households and 49 livestock herders. Herding
of yak, sheep and goats was found to be a common livelihood activity among households in all villages.
Herders reported losing livestock to all four carnivore species. Herders reported that depredation was the
most common event affecting livestock, compared with natural disasters or disease, and represented a
total loss of 3.6% of the livestock population during the previous year. Most (53%) depredation losses were
attributed to lynx, while snow leopards were held responsible for only 7.8% of depredation losses. The
reported impact of snow leopards on herding activities was relatively small and the majority of both
householders and herders expressed positive attitudes towards them and supported measures for their
protection. Households and herders held negative attitudes towards lynx, wolves and bears, however,
most likely due to their perceived threat to livestock and humans. Understanding community perceptions
of threats posed by wildlife is vital for gaining community support for, and engagement in, conflict
mitigation.
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Tumursukh, L., Suryawanshi, K. R., Mishra, C., McCarthy, T. M., Boldgiv, B. (2015). Status of the mountain ungulate prey of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in the Tost Local Protected Area, South Gobi, Mongolia. Oryx, , 1–6.
Abstract: The availability of wild prey is a critical predictor of carnivore density. However, few conservation pro- grammes have focused on the estimation and monitoring of wild ungulate populations and their trends, especially in the remote mountains of Central Asia. We conducted double-observer surveys to estimate the populations of ibex Capra sibirica and argali Ovis ammon in the mountain- ous regions of Tost Local Protected Area, South Gobi prov- ince, Mongolia, which is being considered for designation as a Nature Reserve. We also conducted demographic surveys of the more abundant ibex to examine their sex-ratio and the survival of young during –. The estimated ibex population remained stable in  and  and the es- timated argali population increased from  in  to  in . The biomass of wild ungulates was c. % that of live- stock. Mortality in young ibex appeared to increase after weaning, at the age of  months. We estimated the popula- tion of wild ungulates was sufficient to support – adult snow leopards Panthera uncia. The adult snow leopard population in our study area during –, estimated independently using camera-trap-based mark–recapture methods, was –. Based on our results we identify the Tost Local Protected Area as an important habitat for the conservation of these ungulates and their predator, the Endangered snow leopard, and recommend elevation of its status to a Nature Reserve.
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Alexander, J. S., Gopalswamy, A. M., Shi, K., Riordan, P. (2015). Face Value: Towards Robust Estimates of Snow Leopard Densities. Plos One, .
Abstract: When densities of large carnivores fall below certain thresholds, dramatic ecological effects
can follow, leading to oversimplified ecosystems. Understanding the population status of
such species remains a major challenge as they occur in low densities and their ranges are
wide. This paper describes the use of non-invasive data collection techniques combined
with recent spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate the density of snow leopards
Panthera uncia. It also investigates the influence of environmental and human activity indicators
on their spatial distribution. A total of 60 camera traps were systematically set up during
a three-month period over a 480 km2 study area in Qilianshan National Nature Reserve,
Gansu Province, China. We recorded 76 separate snow leopard captures over 2,906 trapdays,
representing an average capture success of 2.62 captures/100 trap-days. We identified
a total number of 20 unique individuals from photographs and estimated snow leopard
density at 3.31 (SE = 1.01) individuals per 100 km2. Results of our simulation exercise indicate
that our estimates from the Spatial Capture Recapture models were not optimal to
respect to bias and precision (RMSEs for density parameters less or equal to 0.87). Our
results underline the critical challenge in achieving sufficient sample sizes of snow leopard
captures and recaptures. Possible performance improvements are discussed, principally by
optimising effective camera capture and photographic data quality.
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Alexander, J. S., Shi, K., Tallents, L. A., Riordan, P. (2015). On the high trail: examining determinants of site use by the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Qilianshan, China. Oryx, (Fauna & Flora International), 1–8.
Abstract: Abstract There is a need for simple and robust techniques for assessment and monitoring of populations of the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia to inform the de- velopment of action plans for snow leopard conservation. We explored the use of occupancy modelling to evaluate the influence of environmental and anthropogenic features on snow leopard site-use patterns. We conducted a camera trap survey across  km in Gansu Province, China, and used data from  camera traps to estimate probabilities of site use and detection using the single season occupancy model. We assessed the influence of three covariates on site use by snow leopards: elevation, the presence of blue sheep Pseudois nayaur and the presence of human disturb- ance (distance to roads). We recorded  captures of snow leopards over , trap-days, representing a mean capture success of . captures per  trap-days. Elevation had the strongest influence on site use, with the probability of site use increasing with altitude, whereas the influence of presence of prey and distance to roads was relatively weak. Our findings indicate the need for practical and robust tech- niques to appraise determinants of site use by snow leo- pards, especially in the context of the limited resources available for such work.
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