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Sharma, K., Bayrakcismith, R., Tumursukh, L., Johansson, O., Sevger, P., McCarthy, T., Mishra, C. (2014). Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. Plos One, 9(7).
Abstract: Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (l = 1.08+20.25). Comparison of model results with the ‘‘known population’’ of radio-collared snow leopards suggested
high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+20.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+20.15) and 0.77 (SE +20.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +20.19 and 0.68, SE +20.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+20.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of
male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.
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Alexander, J. S., Gopalswamy, A. M., Shi, K., Riordan, P. (2015). Face Value: Towards Robust Estimates of Snow Leopard Densities. Plos One, .
Abstract: When densities of large carnivores fall below certain thresholds, dramatic ecological effects
can follow, leading to oversimplified ecosystems. Understanding the population status of
such species remains a major challenge as they occur in low densities and their ranges are
wide. This paper describes the use of non-invasive data collection techniques combined
with recent spatial capture-recapture methods to estimate the density of snow leopards
Panthera uncia. It also investigates the influence of environmental and human activity indicators
on their spatial distribution. A total of 60 camera traps were systematically set up during
a three-month period over a 480 km2 study area in Qilianshan National Nature Reserve,
Gansu Province, China. We recorded 76 separate snow leopard captures over 2,906 trapdays,
representing an average capture success of 2.62 captures/100 trap-days. We identified
a total number of 20 unique individuals from photographs and estimated snow leopard
density at 3.31 (SE = 1.01) individuals per 100 km2. Results of our simulation exercise indicate
that our estimates from the Spatial Capture Recapture models were not optimal to
respect to bias and precision (RMSEs for density parameters less or equal to 0.87). Our
results underline the critical challenge in achieving sufficient sample sizes of snow leopard
captures and recaptures. Possible performance improvements are discussed, principally by
optimising effective camera capture and photographic data quality.
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Alexander, J., S., Gopalaswamy, A., M., Shi, K., Hughes, J., Riordan, P. (2016). Patterns of Snow Leopard Site Use in an Increasingly Human-Dominated Landscape. PLoS ONE, , 1–15.
Abstract: Human population growth and concomitant increases in demand for natural resources pose threats to many wildlife populations. The landscapes used by the endangered snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and their prey is increasingly subject to major changes in land use. We aimed to assess the influence of 1) key human activities, as indicated by the presence of mining and livestock herding, and 2) the presence of a key prey species, the blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), on probability of snow leopard site use across the landscape. In Gansu Province, China, we conducted sign surveys in 49 grid cells, each of 16 km2 in size, within a larger area of 3392 km2. We analysed the data using likelihood-based habitat occupancy models that explicitly account for imperfect detection and spatial auto-correlation between survey transect segments. The model-averaged estimate of snow leopard occupancy was high [0.75 (SE 0.10)], but only marginally higher than the naïve estimate (0.67). Snow leop- ard segment-level probability of detection, given occupancy on a 500 m spatial replicate, was also high [0.68 (SE 0.08)]. Prey presence was the main determinant of snow leopard site use, while human disturbances, in the form of mining and herding, had low predictive power. These findings suggest that snow leopards continue to use areas very close to such disturbances, as long as there is sufficient prey. Improved knowledge about the effect of human activity on large carnivores, which require large areas and intact prey populations, is urgently needed for conservation planning at the local and global levels. We highlight a number of methodological considerations that should guide the design of such research.
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Shrestha, B., Aihartza, J., Kindlmann. (2018). Diet and prey selection by snow leopards in the Nepalese Himalayas. PLoS ONE, , 1–18.
Abstract: Visual attractiveness and rarity often results in large carnivores being adopted as flagship
species for stimulating conservation awareness. Their hunting behaviour and prey selection
can affect the population dynamics of their prey, which in turn affects the population dynamics
of these large carnivores. Therefore, our understanding of their trophic ecology and foraging
strategies is important for predicting their population dynamics and consequently for
developing effective conservation programs. Here we concentrate on an endangered species
of carnivores, the snow leopard, in the Himalayas. Most previous studies on snow leopard
diet lack information on prey availability and/or did not genetically check, whether the
identification of snow leopard scats is correct, as their scats are similar to those of other
carnivores. We studied the prey of snow leopard in three Himalayan regions in Nepal
(Sagarmatha National Park (SNP), Lower Mustang (LM) and Upper Manang (UM) in the
Annapurna Conservation Area, during winter and summer in 2014�2016. We collected 268
scats along 139.3 km linear transects, of which 122 were genetically confirmed to belong to
snow leopard. Their diet was identified by comparing hairs in scats with our reference collection
of the hairs of potential prey. We determined prey availability using 32�48 camera-traps
and 4,567 trap nights. In the SNP, the most frequent prey in snow leopard faeces was the
Himalayan tahr in both winter and summer. In LM and UM, its main prey was blue sheep in
winter, but yak and goat in summer. In terms of relative biomass consumed, yak was the
main prey everywhere in both seasons. Snow leopard preferred large prey and avoided
small prey in summer but not in winter, with regional differences. It preferred domestic to
wild prey only in winter, and in SNP. Unlike most other studies carried out in the same area,
our study uses genetic methods for identifying the source of the scat. Studies solely based
on visual identification of samples may be strongly biased. Diet studies based on frequency
of occurrence of prey tend to overestimate the importance of small prey, which may be consumed
more often, but contribute less energy than large prey. However, even assessments
based on prey biomass are unlikely to be accurate as we do not know whether the actual
size of the prey consumed corresponds to the average size used to calculate the biomass
eaten. For example, large adults may be too difficult to catch and therefore mostly young animals are consumed, whose weight is much lower. We show that snow leopard consumes
a diverse range of prey, which varies both regionally and seasonally. We conclude that in
order to conserve snow leopards it is also necessary to conserve its main wild species of
prey, which will reduce the incidence of losses of livestock.
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Hanson, J. H., Schutgens, M., Leader-Williams, N. (2019). What factors best explain attitudes to snow leopards in the Nepal Himalayas? PLoS ONE, , 1–19.
Abstract: The snow leopard Panthera uncia is a vulnerable wild felid native to mountainous regions of 12 Asian countries. It faces numerous overlapping threats, including killings by herders retaliating against livestock losses, the illegal wildlife trade, loss of prey and habitat, infra- structure, energy and mining developments, and climate change. The species ranges over large territories that often lie outside of protected areas (PA), so coexistence with human populations across its range is key to its persistence. Human attitudes to snow leopards may be an important factor to consider in reducing overlapping threats to this species. How- ever, this nexus has not been widely studied to date. Attitudes to snow leopard conserva- tion, including actors and interventions, may also be a significant aspect of coexistence. These have also received limited empirical attention. This study therefore explored human attitudes to snow leopards and to snow leopard conservation, the motivations for these atti- tudes and the individual factors that best explained them. Using systematic sampling, a quantitative questionnaire was administered to 705 households at two sites in the Nepal Himalayas: Sagarmatha National Park, with a less decentralised governance model, and Annapurna Conservation Area, with a more decentralised model. Linear regression models were the main form of analysis. Based on these, attitudes to snow leopard conservation emerged as the strongest influence on local attitudes to snow leopards, and vice versa. This was true in both PAs, despite their differing management regimes. Other important explana- tory factors included numbers of livestock owned, years of education, household livelihoods and age. Furthermore, a positive intrinsic motivation was the most common reason given by respondents to explain their attitudes to both snow leopards and snow leopard conservation. These findings demonstrate that, in addition to the usual suite of factors that influence atti- tudes to a species, the way in which its conservation is pursued and perceived also needs consideration. How the snow leopard is conserved may strongly influence its coexistence with local communities.
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Watts, S. W., McCarthy, T. M., Namgail, T. (2019). Modelling potential habitat for snow leopards (Panthera uncia) in
Ladakh, India.
Abstract: The snow leopard Panthera uncia is an elusive species
inhabiting some of the most remote and inaccessible tracts of Central
and South Asia. It is difficult to determine its distribution and
density pattern, which are crucial for developing conservation
strategies. Several techniques for species detection combining camera
traps with remote sensing and geographic information systems have been
developed to model the habitat of such cryptic and low-density species
in challenging terrains. Utilising presence-only data from camera traps
and direct observations, alongside six environmental variables
(elevation, aspect, ruggedness, distance to water, land cover, and prey
habitat suitability), we assessed snow leopard habitat suitability
across Ladakh in northern India. This is the first study to model snow
leopard distribution both in India and utilising direct observation
data. Results suggested that elevation and ruggedness are the two most
influential environmental variables for snow leopard habitat
suitability, with highly suitable habitat having an elevation range of
2,800 m to 4,600 m and ruggedness of 450 m to 1,800 m. Our habitat
suitability map estimated approximately 12% of Ladakh’s geographical
area (c. 90,000 km2) as highly suitable and 18% as medium suitability.
We found that 62.5% of recorded livestock depredation along with over
half of all livestock corrals (54%) and homestays (58%) occurred within
highly suitable snow leopard habitat. Our habitat suitability model can
be used to assist in allocation of conservation resources by targeting
construction of livestock corrals to areas of high habitat suitability
and promoting ecotourism programs in villages in highly suitable snow
leopard habitat.
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Hameed, S., Din, J. U., Ali, H., Kabir, M., Younas, M., Rehman,
E. U., Bari, F., Hao, W., Bischof, R., Nawaz, M. A. (2020). Identifying priority landscapes for conservation of snow
leopards in Pakistan. Plos One, , 1–20.
Abstract: Pakistan’s total estimated snow leopard habitat is about
80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime habitat. However,
this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the
actual distribution the discrepancy may be huge at the local and
regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping
and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records
that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on
empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. The
current study followed this approach to construct an accurate
distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors,
among different landscapes, were also identified through circuit theory.
The probability of habitat suitability, generated from 98 presence
points and 11 environmental variables, scored the snow leopard’s assumed
range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large portion of the known range
represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat,
Astore, and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber,
Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats.
Variables with higher contributions in the MaxEnt model were
precipitation during the driest month (34%), annual mean temperature
(19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation
(9.4%), and river density (9.2). The model was validated through
receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and defined thresholds.
The average test AUC in Maxent for the replicate runs was 0.933 while
the value of AUC by ROC curve calculated at 0.15 threshold was 1.00.
These validation tests suggested a good model fit and strong predictive
power. The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the
Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in
Afghani- stan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly,
the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and
Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was connected with the
population in India. Based on our findings we propose three model
landscapes to be considered under the Global Snow Leopard Ecosystem
Protection Program (GSLEP) agenda as regional priority areas, to
safeguard the future of the snow leopard in Pakistan and the region.
These landscapes fall within mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush
and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in the
existing protected areas network and suggest new protected areas in
Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow
leopard in Pakistan.
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Sharma, R. K., Sharma, K., Borchers, D., Bhatnagar, Y V., Suryawanshi, K. R., Mishra, C. (2021). Spatial variation in population-density of snow leopards in a multiple use landscape in Spiti Valley, Trans-Himalaya.
Abstract: The endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia occurs in human use landscapes in the mountains of South and Central Asia. Conservationists generally agree that snow leopards must be conserved through a land-sharing approach, rather than land-sparing in the form of strictly protected areas. Effective conservation through land-sharing requires a good understanding of how snow leopards respond to human use of the landscape. Snow leopard density is expected to show spatial variation within a landscape because of variation in the intensity of human use and the quality of habitat. However, snow leopards have been difficult to enumerate and monitor. Variation in the density of snow leopards remains undocumented, and the impact of human use on their populations is poorly understood. We examined spatial variation in snow leopard density in Spiti Valley, an important snow leopard landscape in India, via spatially explicit capture-recapture analysis of camera trap data. We camera trapped an area encompassing a minimum convex polygon of 953 km2. Our best model estimated an overall density of 0.5 (95% CI: 0.31–0.82) mature snow leopards per 100 km2. Using AIC, our best model showed the density of snow leopards to depend on estimated wild prey density, movement about activity centres to depend on altitude, and the expected number of encounters at the activity centre to depend on topography. Models that also used livestock biomass as a density covariate ranked second, but the effect of livestock was weak. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining high density pockets of wild prey populations in multiple-use landscapes to enhance snow leopard conservation.
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Dickman, A., Macdonald, E., Macdonald, D. (2011). A review of financial instruments to pay for predator conservation and encourage human–carnivore coexistence. PNAS, 108(34), 13937–13944.
Abstract: One of the greatest challenges in biodiversity conservation today is how to facilitate protection of species that are highly valued at a global scale but have little or even negative value at a local scale. Imperiled species such as large predators can impose significant economic costs at a local level, often in poverty-stricken rural areas where households are least able to tolerate such costs, and impede efforts of local people, especially traditional pastoralists, to escape from poverty. Furthermore, the costs and benefits involved in predator conservation often include diverse dimensions, which are hard to quantify and nearly impossible to reconcile with one another. The best chance of effective conservation relies upon translating the global value of carnivores into tangible local benefits large enough to drive conservation “on the ground.” Although human–carnivore coexistence involves significant noneconomic values, providing financial incentives to those affected negatively by carnivore presence is a common strategy for encouraging such coexistence, and this can also have important benefits in terms of reducing poverty. Here, we provide a critical overview of such financial instruments, which we term “payments to encourage coexistence”; assess the pitfalls and potentials of these methods, particularly compensation and insurance, revenuesharing, and conservation payments; and discuss how existing strategies of payment to encourage coexistence could be combined to facilitate carnivore conservation and alleviate local poverty.
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Suryawanshi, K. R., Khanyari, M., Sharma, K., Lkhagvajav, P., Mishra, C. (2019). Sampling bias in snow leopard population estimation studies. Population Eccology, , 1–9.
Abstract: Accurate assessments of the status of threatened species and their conservation
planning require reliable estimation of their global populations and robust monitoring
of local population trends. We assessed the adequacy and suitability of studies
in reliably estimating the global snow leopard (Panthera uncia) population. We
compiled a dataset of all the peer-reviewed published literature on snow leopard
population estimation. Metadata analysis showed estimates of snow leopard density
to be a negative exponential function of area, suggesting that study areas have generally
been too small for accurate density estimation, and sampling has often been
biased towards the best habitats. Published studies are restricted to six of the
12 range countries, covering only 0.3�0.9% of the presumed global range of the
species. Re-sampling of camera trap data from a relatively large study site
(c.1684 km2) showed that small-sized study areas together with a bias towards
good quality habitats in existing studies may have overestimated densities by up to
five times. We conclude that current information is biased and inadequate for generating
a reliable global population estimate of snow leopards. To develop a rigorous
and useful baseline and to avoid pitfalls, there is an urgent need for
(a) refinement of sampling and analytical protocols for population estimation of
snow leopards (b) agreement and coordinated use of standardized sampling protocols
amongst researchers and governments across the range, and (c) sampling
larger and under-represented areas of the snow leopard's global range.
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