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Nawaz, M. A., Khan, B. U., Mahmood, A., Younas, M., Din, J. U, Sutherland, C. (2021). An empirical demonstration of the effect of study design on density estimations. Nature, 11(13104), 1–9.
Abstract: The simultaneous development of technology (e.g. camera traps) and statistical methods, particularly spatially capture–recapture (SCR), has improved monitoring of large mammals in recent years. SCR estimates are known to be sensitive to sampling design, yet existing recommendations about trap spacing and coverage are often not achieved, particularly for sampling wide-ranging and rare species in landscapes that allow for limited accessibility. Consequently, most camera trap studies on large wide-ranging carnivores relies on convenience or judgmental sampling, and often yields compromised results. This study attempts to highlight the importance of carefully considered sampling design for large carnivores that, because of low densities and elusive behavior, are challenging to monitor. As a motivating example, we use two years of snow leopard camera trapping data from the same areas in the high mountains of Pakistan but with vastly different camera configurations, to demonstrate that estimates of density and space use are indeed sensitive to the trapping array. A compact design, one in which cameras were placed much closer together than generally recommended and therefore have lower spatial coverage, resulted in fewer individuals observed, but more recaptures, and estimates of density and space use were inconsistent with expectations for the region. In contrast, a diffuse design, one with larger spacing and spatial coverage and more consistent with general recommendations, detected more individuals, had fewer recaptures, but generated estimates of density and space use that were in line with expectations. Researchers often opt for compact camera configurations while monitoring wide-ranging and rare species, in an attempt to maximize the encounter probabilities. We empirically demonstrate the potential for biases when sampling a small area approximately the size of a single home range—this arises from exposing fewer individuals than deemed sufficient for estimation. The smaller trapping array may also underestimate density by significantly inflating
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Thapa, K., Shreesh, I. K., Magar, K. T. (2025). Exploring sustainability in trophy hunting practices at Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve, Nepal: A balancing act? Journal for Nature Conservation, 87(126963), 1–7.
Abstract: Since 1987, trophy hunting of blue sheep has been operated in the Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve in western Nepal to maintain mountain ecosystem balance. We assessed the impacts of these practices by analyzing ecological, socioeconomical, and cultural variables, including the demographic structure of the blue sheep population, income from trophy hunting, management costs, and a perception survey with 293 respondents through semi-structured interviews. The blue sheep population has significantly declined from 2,593 in 1979 to 1,290 in 2021. The young-to-female recruitment ratio also dropped sharply from 83 to 37, and the male-to-female ratio decreased from 129 to 91, indicating a dramatic population decline over 30 years. The average annual management cost for DHR showed a deficit of $322,508 compared to trophy hunting earnings over six fiscal years 2017/18 to 2022/23. Indigenous peoples and local communities practice agropastoral
economies, relying on natural resources for about 75 % of their subsistence, with only 25 % coming from
overseas remittances and market enterprises. More than 90 % felt they had not benefited from trophy hunting
sharing initiatives, and 75 % to 80 % expressed distrust in the blue sheep population counts, opposing current
trophy hunting practices. Additionally, 69 % rejected the proposed buffer zone, while 90 % advocated for
reviving customary practices over current conservation methods. In conclusion, the existing trophy hunting practices in DHR are unsustainable from ecological, socioeconomical, and cultural perspectives, threatening the entire ecosystem if left unchanged. Urgent research on predator–prey dynamics, pasture carrying capacity, and interactions among indigenous communities is needed. A major overhaul of current conservation strategies and the revitalization of customary practices are essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability of trophy hunting and restoring trust with Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities.
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Thapa, K., Baral, S., Rahamajhi, S. (2023). Effectiveness of Human-Snow leopard co-existence measure- a systematic analysis. Journal for Nature Conservation, 76(126511), 1–11.
Abstract: Snow leopards and agropastoral communities have co-existed in snow leopard range countries for centuries. The vulnerable snow leopard forms and maintains the entire ecosystem, serving as an indicator species of a healthy alpine ecosystem. However, snow leopards, on the other hand, habitually kill livestock, occasionally killing 100 or more livestock in a single night, resulting in snow leopard retaliation. Thus, the snow leopard is becoming more threatened, so more attention should be paid. Therefore, numerous conservation mitigation strategies have been applied to maintain human-snow leopard coexistence in countries of the snow leopard range. However, such implemented conservation strategies lacked a thorough assessment of their achievements or shortcomings in protecting the snow leopard and enhancing community tolerance. Therefore, we systematically examined and evaluated peer-reviewed articles and book chapters on existing and implemented mitigation measures. We use the software Publish or Perish to achieve this, and we assess using the Preferred Reporting of Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) review approach. We thoroughly analyzed 42 papers and book chapters that were condensed human- snow leopard co-existence-related literature published in English from 2010 to 2023. Almost 90% of the papers were country-specific, with the remaining papers covering regional or snow leopard ranges countries. Nepal had the most papers, followed by China, India, and Mongolia; however, Afghanistan, Bhutan, Pakistan, Russia, and Tajikistan each had<10%, but there was no single document from Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan. Predator-proof corral, improved herding practices, and community-based insurance programs were three of the key recommendations that were more than 10 to 22 times proposed interventions. There are site-specific sociocultural situations and environments that require long-term action-oriented research that is area-specific rather than short-term and generic interventions. We identified a large knowledge gap in snow leopard research, specifically a lack of evidence that demonstrates and quantifies the effects of conservation actions, and strongly advise that it be further researched.
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Piaopiao, T., Suryawanshi, K. R., Lingyun, X., Mishra, C., Zhi, L., Alexander, J. S. (2022). Factors shaping the tolerance of local Tibetan herders toward snow leopards. Journal for Nature Conservation, 71 (2023)(126305), 1–8.
Abstract: Snow leopards (Panthera uncia) have long co-existed with livestock herding people across Asia’s high mountains. Multiple use landscapes however imply potential competition for shared resources, livestock predation, and the risk of retaliatory killing of predators. Community-based conservation is a central pillar for supporting people’s livelihoods and safeguarding predators and their habitat. Based on the theory of planned behavior, we examined the factors that shape herders’ tolerance of snow leopards. Our questionnaire-based study was conducted in the Sanjiangyuan Region, China, encompassing four communities with varying livelihoods, experiences with live- stock depredation and levels of exposure to community conservation interventions. Our results showed that respondents generally held positive views towards snow leopards, although women tended to have relatively more negative views towards snow leopards compared with men. Current household income was largely dependent on caterpillar fungus rather than livestock. Social norms around religion and the role of community leaders in our study area seemed to be the main determinants of the generally benign association of people with wildlife, overshadowing potential influences of community-based conservation interventions. Our work suggests that conservations programs will be aided through collaborations with communities and religious institutions, and that conservationists must proactively engage with women as significant actors in conservation.
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Hellstrom, M., Kruger, E., Naslund, J., Bisther, M., Edlund, A., Hernvall, P., Birgersson, V., Augusto, R., Lancaster, M. L. (2023). Capturing environmental DNA in snow tracks of polar bear, Eurasian lynx and snow leopard towards individual identification. Frontiers in Conservation Science, 4(1250996), 1–9.
Abstract: Polar bears (Ursus maritimus), Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and snow leopards (Panthera uncia) are elusive large carnivores inhabiting snow-covered and remote areas. Their effective conservation and management are challenged by inadequate population information, necessitating development of novel data collection methods. Environmental DNA (eDNA) from snow tracks (footprints in snow) has identified species based on mitochondrial DNA, yet its utility for individual-based analyses remains unsolved due to challenges accessing the nuclear genome. We present a protocol for capturing nuclear eDNA from polar bear, Eurasian lynx and snow leopard snow tracks and verify it through genotyping at a selection of microsatellite markers. We successfully retrieved nuclear eDNA from 87.5% (21/24) of wild polar bear snow tracks, 59.1% (26/44) of wild Eurasian lynx snow tracks, and the single snow leopard sampled. We genotyped over half of all wild polar bear samples (54.2%, 13/24) at five loci, and 11% (9/44) of wild lynx samples and the snow leopard at three loci. Genotyping success from Eurasian lynx snow tracks increased to 24% when tracks were collected by trained rather than untrained personnel. Thirteen wild polar bear samples comprised 11 unique genotypes and two identical genotypes; likely representing 12 individual bears, one of which was sampled twice. Snow tracks show promise for use alongside other non-invasive and conventional methods as a reliable source of nuclear DNA for genetic mark-recapture of elusive and threatened mammals. The detailed protocol we present has utility for broadening end user groups and engaging Indigenous and local communities in species monitoring.
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Kichloo, M. A., Sharma, K., Sharma, N. (2023). Climate casualties or human disturbance? Shrinking distribution of the three large carnivores in the Greater Himalaya. Springer – Climatic Change, 176(118), 1–17.
Abstract: Mammalian carnivores are key to our understanding of ecosystem dynamics, but most of them are threatened with extinction all over the world. Conservating large carnivores is often an arduous task considering the complex relationship between humans and carnivores, and the diverse range and reasons of threats they face. Climate change is exacerbating the situation further by interacting with most existing threats and amplifying their impacts. The Mountains of Central and South Asia are warming twice as rapidly as the rest of the northern hemisphere. There has been limited research on the effect of climate change and other variables on large carnivores. We studied the patterns in spatio-temporal distribution of three sympatric carnivores, common leopard, snow leopard, and Asiatic black bear in Kishtwar high altitude National Park, a protected area in the Great Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir. We investigated the effects of key habitat characteristics as well as human disturbance and climatic factors to understand the spatio-temporal change in their distributions between the early 1990s and around the year 2016–2017. We found a marked contraction in the distribution of the three carnivores between the two time periods. While snow leopard shifted upwards and further away from human settlements, common leopard and Asiatic black bear suffered higher rates of local extinctions at higher altitudes and shifted to lower areas with more vegetation, even if that brought them closer to settlements. We also found some evidence that snow leopards were less likely to have faced range contraction in areas with permanent glaciers. Our study underscores the importance of climate adaptive conservation practices for long-term management in the Greater Himalaya, including the monitoring of changes in habitat, and space-use patterns by human communities and wildlife.
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Kau, M., Weckworth, B. V., Li, S., Pires, M.M., Jin, D., Pacifici, M., Rondinini, C., Boitani, L., McCarthy, T. M., Lu, Z., Schaller, G. B., Beissinger, S. R., Li, J. (2025). Umbrella, keystone, or flagship? An integrated framework for identifying effective surrogate species. Biological Conservation, 303(111025), 1–12.
Abstract: The global biodiversity crisis demands targeted conservation strategies that maximize impact despite limited
resources. Surrogate species approaches, particularly using umbrella, keystone, and flagship species, offer
practical targets for conservation planning that may indirectly benefit ecosystems. However, selecting target
species is often hindered by conceptual ambiguities and inconsistent methodologies. To address these challenges, we present an integrative framework that systematically identifies effective surrogate species through Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) combined with big data. Our framework quantifies each species' conservation potential using three indices: an Umbrella index, a Keystone index, and a Flagship index. The Umbrella index assesses habitat overlap using Area of Habitat (AOH) data, the Keystone index is calculated through a network analysis of predator-prey relationships, and the Flagship index analyzes public interest via Google Trends and Baidu Index. These indices are integrated into a composite Effectiveness index using the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) model, with sensitivity analysis to evaluate the robustness of species rankings. We applied this framework to Three-River-Source National Park in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Our results identified the snow leopard (Panthera uncia) as the most effective surrogate species among mammals, ranking first in both the Flagship and Keystone indices, and tenth in the Umbrella index, leading to its top position in the composite Effectiveness index. This data-driven, transparent approach enhances objectivity in surrogate species selection, promising more strategic and impactful biodiversity conservation efforts worldwide.
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Filla, M., Lama, R. P., Ghale, T. R., Signer, J., Filla, T., Aryal, R. R., Heurich, M., Waltert, M., Balkenhol, N., Khorozyan, I. (2020). In the shadows of snow leopards and the Himalayas: density and habitat selection of blue sheep in Manang, Nepal. Ecology and Evolution, 2021(11), 108–122.
Abstract: There is a growing agreement that conservation needs to be proactive and pay increased attention to common species and to the threats they face. The blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) plays a key ecological role in sensitive high-altitude ecosystems of Central Asia and is among the main prey species for the globally vulnerable snow leopard (Panthera uncia). As the blue sheep has been increasingly exposed to human pressures, it is vital to estimate its population dynamics, protect the key populations, identify important habitats, and secure a balance between conservation and local livelihoods. We conducted a study in Manang, Annapurna Conservation Area (Nepal), to survey blue sheep on 60 transects in spring (127.9 km) and 61 transects in autumn (134.7 km) of 2019, estimate their minimum densities from total counts, compare these densities with previous estimates, and assess blue sheep habitat selection by the application of generalized additive models (GAMs). Total counts yielded minimum density estimates of 6.0–7.7 and 6.9–7.8 individuals/km2 in spring and autumn, respectively, which are relatively high compared to other areas. Elevation and, to a lesser extent, land cover indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) strongly affected habitat selection by blue sheep, whereas the effects of anthropogenic variables were insignificant. Animals were found mainly in habitats associated with grasslands and shrublands at elevations between 4,200 and 4,700 m. We show that the blue sheep population size in Manang has been largely maintained over the past three decades, indicating the success of the integrated conservation and development efforts in this area. Considering a strong dependence of snow leopards on blue sheep, these findings give hope for the long-term conservation of this big cat in Manang. We suggest that long-term population monitoring and a better understanding of blue sheep–livestock interactions are crucial to maintain healthy populations of blue sheep and, as a consequence, of snow leopards.
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Li, J., Xue, Y., Hacker, C. E., Zhang, Y., Li, Y., Cong, W., Jin, L., Li, G., Wu, B., Li, D., Zhang, Y. (2021). Projected impacts of climate change on snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province, China. Ecology and Evolution, (11), 17202–17218.
Abstract: Assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to reduce emerging climate-related threats. We used the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt model) to assess potential changes in suitable snow leopard (Panthera uncia) habitat in Qinghai Province, China, under a mild climate change scenario. Our results showed that the area of suitable snow leopard habitat in Qinghai Province was 302,821 km2 under current conditions and 228,997 km2 under the 2050s climatic scenario, with a mean upward shift in elevation of 90 m. At present, nature reserves protect 38.78% of currently suitable habitat and will protect 42.56% of future suitable habitat. Current areas of climate refugia amounted to 212,341 km2 and are mainly distributed in the Sanjiangyuan region, Qilian mountains, and surrounding areas. Our results provide valuable information for formulating strategies to meet future conservation challenges brought on by climate stress. We suggest that conservation efforts in Qinghai Province should focus on protecting areas of climate refugia and on maintaining or building corridors when planning for future species management.
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Kachel, S., Anderson, K., Shokirov, Q. (2022). Predicting carnivore habitat use and livestock depredation risk with false-positive multi-state occupancy models. Biological Conservation, 271(109588), 1–10.
Abstract: The cycle of livestock depredation and retaliatory killing constitutes a major threat to large carnivores worldwide and imposes considerable hardships on human communities. Mitigation efforts are often undertaken with little knowledge of ecological underpinnings and patterns of depredation, limiting conservationists' ability to develop, prioritize, and evaluate solutions. Carnivore detection and depredation data from interviews in affected communities may help address this gap, but such data are often prone to false-positive uncertainty. To address these challenges in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan we collected snow leopard, lynx, wolf, and bear detection and depredation reports from local communities via semi-structured interviews. We used a novel hierarchical multi-species multi-state occupancy model that accounted for potential false-positives to investigate carnivore site use and depredation concurrently with respondents' apparent vulnerability to that risk. Estimated false-positive probabilities were small, but failure to account for them overstated site use probabilities and depredation risk for all species. Although individual vulnerability was low, depredation was nonetheless commonplace. Carnivore site use was driven by clear habitat associations, but we did not identify any clearly important large-scale spatial correlates of depredation risk despite considerable spatial variation in that risk. Respondents who sheltered livestock in household corrals reinforced with wire mesh were less likely to report snow leopard depredations. Reducing depredation and retaliation at adequately large scales in the Pamirs will likely require a portfolio of species-specific strategies, including widespread proactive corral improvements. Our approach expanded inference on the often-cryptic processes surrounding human-carnivore conflict even though structured wildlife data were scarce.
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