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Li, J., McCarthy, T. M., Wang, H., Weckworth, B. V., Shaller, G. B., Mishra, C., Lu, Z., Beissinger, S. R. (2016). Climate refugia of snow leopards in High Asia. Biological Conservation, (203), 188–196.
Abstract: Rapidwarming in High Asia is threatening its unique ecosystemand endemic species, especially the endangered
snow leopard (Panthera uncia). Snow leopards inhabit the alpine zone between snow line and tree line, which
contracts and expands greatly during glacier-interglacial cycles. Here we assess impacts of climate change on
global snow leopard habitat from the last glacial maximum (LGM; 21 kyr ago) to the late 21st century. Based
on occurrence records of snow leopards collected across all snow leopard range countries from 1983 to 2015,
we built a snow leopard habitat model using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt 3.3.3k). Then we
projected this model into LGM, mid-Holocene and 2070. Analysis of snow leopard habitat map from LGM to
2070 indicates that three large patches of stable habitat have persisted from the LGM to present in the Altai,
Qilian, and Tian Shan-Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram mountain ranges, and are projected to persist through the
late 21st century. These climatically suitable areas account for about 35% of the snow leopard's current extent,
are large enough to support viable populations, and should function as refugia for snow leopards to survive
through both cold and warm periods. Existence of these refugia is largely due to the unique mountain environment
in High Asia, which maintains a relatively constant arid or semi-arid climate. However, habitat loss leading
to fragmentation in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains, as well as increasing human activities, will present
conservation challenges for snow leopards and other sympatric species.
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Johansson, O., Rauset, G. R., Samelius, G., McCarthy, T., Andren, H., Tumursukh, L., Mishra, C. (2016). Land sharing is essential for snow leopard conservation. Biological Conservation, (203), 1–7.
Abstract: Conserving large carnivores in an increasingly crowded planet raises difficult challenges. A recurring debate is whether large carnivores can be conserved in human used landscapes (land sharing) or whether they require specially designated areas (land sparing). Here we show that 40% of the 170 protected areas in the global range of the snow leopard (Panthera uncia) are smaller than the home range of a single adult male and only 4– 13% are large enough for a 90% probability of containing 15 or more adult females. We used data from 16 snow leopards equipped with GPS collars in the Tost Mountains of South Gobi, Mongolia, to calculate home range size and overlap using three different estimators: minimum convex polygons (MCP), kernel utility distributions (Kernel), and local convex hulls (LoCoH). Local convex hull home ranges were smaller and included lower proportions of unused habitats compared to home ranges based on minimum convex polygons and Kernels. Intra-sexual home range overlapwas low, especially for adult males, suggesting that snowleopards are territorial. Mean home range size based on the LoCoH estimates was 207 km2 ± 63 SD for adult males and 124 km2 ± 41 SD for adult females. Our estimates were 6–44 times larger than earlier estimates based on VHF technology when comparing similar estimators, i.e. MCP. Our study illustrates that protected areas alone will not be able to conserve predatorswith large home ranges and conservationists and managers should not restrict their efforts to land sparing.
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Johansson, O., Mishra, C., Chapron, G., Samelius, G., Lkhagvajav, P., McCarthy, T., Low, M. (2022). Seasonal variation in daily activity patterns of snow leopards and their prey. Nature Portfolio, 12(21681), 1–11.
Abstract: The daily and seasonal activity patterns of snow leopards (Panthera uncia) are poorly understood, limiting our ecological understanding and hampering our ability to mitigate threats such as climate change and retaliatory killing in response to livestock predation. We fitted GPS-collars with activity loggers to snow leopards, Siberian ibex (Capra sibirica: their main prey), and domestic goats (Capra hircus: common livestock prey) in Mongolia between 2009 and 2020. Snow leopards were facultatively nocturnal with season-specific crepuscular activity peaks: seasonal activity shifted towards night- sunrise during summer, and day-sunset in winter. Snow leopard activity was in contrast to their prey, which were consistently diurnal. We interpret these results in relation to: (1) darkness as concealment for snow leopards when stalking in an open landscape (nocturnal activity), (2) low-intermediate light preferred for predatory ambush in steep rocky terrain (dawn and dusk activity), and (3) seasonal activity adjustments to facilitate thermoregulation in an extreme environment. These patterns suggest that to minimise human-wildlife conflict, livestock should be corralled at night and dawn in summer, and dusk in winter. It is likely that climate change will intensify seasonal effects on the snow leopard’s daily temporal niche for thermoregulation in the future.
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Murali, R., Redpath, S., Mishra, C. (2017). The value of ecosystem services in the high altitude Spiti Valley, Indian Trans-Himalaya. Elsevier, (28), 115–123.
Abstract: The high mountain ranges of South and Central Asia are increasingly being exposed to large-scale development
projects. These areas are home to traditional pastoralist communities and internationally important
biodiversity including the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia. Development projects rely on
economic cost-benefit analysis, but the ecosystem services in the high Himalayas are poorly understood
and are rarely accounted for. As a first step to fill this gap, we identified the main ecosystem services used
by local people in the Trans-Himalayan Spiti Valley (7591 km2), a region important for conservation of
snow leopards and high mountain biodiversity, and undertook an economic valuation. Stakeholders identified
a range of services, though these were dominated by provisioning services identified by 90% of
respondents. Only 5.4% of the respondents recognised regulatory services and 4.8% recognised cultural
services. The mean economic value of provisioning services was estimated at US$ 3622 ± 149 HH1
yr1, which was 3.8 times higher than the average annual household income. Our results underscore
the need to account for ecosystem services in the cost-benefit analyses of large-scale development projects
in addition to assessments of their environmental and social impact.
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Mishra, C. (1997). Livestock depredation by large carnivores in the Indian trans-Himalaya: Conflict perceptions and conservation prospects. Environmental Conservation, 24(4), 338–343.
Abstract: Livestock depredation by the snow leopard, Uncia uncia, and the wolf, Canis lupus, has resulted in a human-wildlife conflict that hinders the conservation of these globally-threatened species throughout their range. This paper analyses the alleged economic loss due to livestock depredation by these carnivores, and the retaliatory responses of an agro-pastoral community around Kibber Wildlife Sanctuary in the Indian trans-Himalaya. The three villages studied (80 households) attributed a total of 189 livestock deaths (18% of the livestock holding) over a period of 18 months to wild predators, and this would amount to a loss per household equivalent to half the average annual per capita income. The financial compensation received by the villagers from the Government amounted to 3% of the perceived annual loss. Recent intensification of the conflict seems related to a 37.7% increase in livestock holding in the last decade. Villagers have been killing the wolf, though apparently not the snow leopard. A self-financed compensation scheme, and modification of existing livestock pens are suggested as area-specific short-term measures to reduce the conflict. The need to address the problem of increasing livestock holding in the long run is emphasized.
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Berger, J., Buuveibaatar, B., Mishra, C. (). Globalization of the Cashmere Market and the Decline of Large Mammals in Central Asia. Conservation Biology, 27(4), 679–689.
Abstract: As drivers of terrestrial ecosystems, humans have replaced large carnivores in most areas, and
human influence not only exerts striking ecological pressures on biodiversity at local scales but also has
indirect effects in distant corners of the world. We suggest that the multibillion dollar cashmere industry
creates economic motivations that link western fashion preferences for cashmere to land use in Central
Asia. This penchant for stylish clothing, in turn, encourages herders to increase livestock production which
affects persistence of over 6 endangered large mammals in these remote, arid ecosystems. We hypothesized
that global trade in cashmere has strong negative effects on native large mammals of deserts and grassland
where cashmere-producing goats are raised. We used time series data, ecological snapshots of the biomass
of native and domestic ungulates, and ecologically and behaviorally based fieldwork to test our hypothesis.
In Mongolia increases in domestic goat production were associated with a 3-fold increase in local profits for
herders coexisting with endangered saiga (Saiga tatarica). That increasing domestic grazing pressure carries
fitness consequences was inferred on the basis of an approximately 4-fold difference in juvenile recruitment among blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) in trans-Himalayan India. Across 7 study areas in Mongolia, India, and China’s Tibetan Plateau, native ungulate biomass is now <5% that of domestic species. Such trends suggest ecosystem degradation and decreased capacity for the persistence of native species, including at least 8 Asian endemic species: saiga, chiru (Pantholops hodgsoni), Bactrian camel (Camelus bactrianus), snow leopard (Panthera uncia), khulan (Equus hemionus), kiang (E. kiang), takhi (E. przewalski), and wild yak (Bos mutus). Our results suggest striking yet indirect and unintended actions that link trophic-level effects to markets induced by the trade for cashmere.
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Bhatia, S., Suryawanshi, K., Redpath, S., Namgail, S., Mishra, C. (2021). Understanding People's Relationship With Wildlife in Trans-Himalayan Folklore. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 9(595169), 1–10.
Abstract: People's views and values for wild animals are often a result of their experiences and traditional knowledge. Local folklore represents a resource that can enable an understanding of the nature of human-wildlife interactions, especially the underlying cultural values. Using archival searches and semi-structured interviews, we collected narratives about the ibex (Capra sibirica) (n = 69), and its predators, the wolf (Canis lupus) (n = 52) and the snow leopard (Panthera uncia) (n = 43), in Ladakh, India. We compared these stories to those of a mythical carnivore called seng ge or snow lion (n = 19), frequently referenced in local Tibetan Buddhist folklore and believed to share many of the traits commonly associated with snow leopards (except for livestock depredation). We then categorized the values along social-cultural, ecological and psychological dimensions. We found that the ibex was predominantly associated with utilitarianism and positive symbolism. Both snow leopard and wolf narratives referenced negative affective and negative symbolic values, though more frequently in the case of wolves. Snow leopard narratives largely focused on utilitarian and ecologistic values. In contrast, snow lion narratives were mostly associated with positive symbolism. Our results suggest that especially for snow leopards and wolves, any potentially positive symbolic associations appeared to be overwhelmed by negative sentiments because of their tendency to prey on livestock, unlike in the case of the snow lion. Since these values reflect people's real and multifarious interactions with wildlife, we recommend paying greater attention to understanding the overlaps between natural and cultural heritage conservation to facilitate human-wildlife coexistence.
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Johansson, O., Samelius, G., Wikberg, E, Chapron, G., Mishra, C., Low, M. (2020). Identification errors in camera- trap studies result in systematic population overestimation. Scientific Reports, 10(6393), 1–10.
Abstract: Reliable assessments of animal abundance are key for successful conservation of endangered species. For elusive animals with individually-unique markings, camera-trap surveys are a benchmark standard for estimating local and global population abundance. Central to the reliability of resulting abundance estimates is the assumption that individuals are accurately identified from photographic captures. To quantify the risk of individual misidentification and its impact on population abundance estimates we performed an experiment under controlled conditions in which 16 captive snow leopards (Panthera uncia) were camera-trapped on 40 occasions and eight observers independently identified individuals and recaptures. Observers misclassified 12.5% of all capture occasions, resulting in systematically inflated population abundance estimates on average by one third (mean ± SD = 35 ± 21%). Our results show that identifying individually-unique individuals from camera-trap photos may not be as reliable as previously believed, implying that elusive and endangered species could be less abundant than current estimates indicate.
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Sharma, K., Bayrakcismith, R., Tumursukh, L., Johansson, O., Sevger, P., McCarthy, T., Mishra, C. (2014). Vigorous Dynamics Underlie a Stable Population of the Endangered Snow Leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. Plos One, 9(7).
Abstract: Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (l = 1.08+20.25). Comparison of model results with the ‘‘known population’’ of radio-collared snow leopards suggested
high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+20.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+20.15) and 0.77 (SE +20.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +20.19 and 0.68, SE +20.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+20.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of
male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.
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Johansson, O., Koehler, G., Rauset, G. R.< Samelius, G., Andren, H., Mishra, C., Lhagvarsuren, P., McCarthy, T., Low, M. (2018). Sex specific seasonal variation in puma and snow leopard home range utilization. Ecosphere, 9(8), 1–14.
Abstract: Territory size is often larger for males than for females in species without biparental care. For large solitary carnivores, this is explained by males encompassing a set of female territories to monopolize their reproduction during mating (area maximization). However, males are expected to behave more like females outside of breeding, with their area utilization being dependent on the range required to secure food resources (area minimization). To examine how male and female solitary carnivores adjust their spatial organization during the year as key resources (mates and prey) change, we radio‐collared 17 pumas (Puma concolor; nine males and eight females) and 14 snow leopards (Panthera uncia; seven males and seven females) and estimated home range size and overlap on two temporal scales (annual vs. monthly). Contrary to expectation, we found no evidence that males monopolized females (the mean territory overlap between females and the focal male during the mating season was 0.28 and 0.64 in pumas and snow leopards, respectively). Although male�male overlap of annual home ranges was comparatively high (snow leopards [0.21] vs. pumas [0.11]), monthly home range overlaps were small (snow leopards [0.02] vs. pumas [0.08]) suggesting strong territoriality. In pumas, both males and females reduced their monthly home ranges in winter, and at the same time, prey distribution was clumped and mating activity increased. In snow leopards, females showed little variation in seasonal home range size, following the seasonal stability in their primary prey. However, male snow leopards reduced their monthly home range utilization in the mating season. In line with other studies, our results suggest that female seasonal home range variation is largely explained by changes in food resource distribution. However, contrary to expectations, male territories did not generally encompass those of females, and males reduced their home ranges during mating. Our results show that male and female territorial boundaries tend to intersect in these species, and hint at the operation of female choice and male mate guarding within these mating systems.
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