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Ale, S., & Brown, J. (2007). The contingencies of group size and vigilance (Vol. 9).
Abstract: Background: Predation risk declines non-linearly with one's own vigilance and the vigilance of others in the group (the 'many-eyes' effect). Furthermore, as group size increases, the individual's risk of predation may decline through dilution with more potential victims, but may increase if larger groups attract more predators. These are known, respectively, as the dilution effect and the attraction effect.
Assumptions: Feeding animals use vigilance to trade-off food and safety. Net feeding rate declines linearly with vigilance.
Question: How do the many-eyes, dilution, and attraction effects interact to influence the relationship between group size and vigilance behaviour?
Mathematical methods: We use game theory and the fitness-generating function to determine the ESS level of vigilance of an individual within a group.
Predictions: Vigilance decreases with group size as a consequence of the many-eyes and dilution effects but increases with group size as a consequence of the attraction effect, when they act independent of each other. Their synergetic effects on vigilance depend upon the relative strengths of each and their interactions. Regardless, the influence of other factors on vigilance – such as encounter rate with predators, predator lethality, marginal value of energy, and value of vigilance – decline with group size.
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McCarthy, K., Fuller, T., Ming, M., McCarthy, T., Waits, L., & Jumabaev, K. (2008). Assessing Estimators of Snow Leopard Abundance (Vol. 72).
Abstract: The secretive nature of snow leopards (Uncia uncia) makes them difficult to monitor, yet conservation efforts require accurate and precise methods to estimate abundance. We assessed accuracy of Snow Leopard Information Management System (SLIMS) sign surveys by comparing them with 4 methods for estimating snow leopard abundance: predator:prey biomass ratios, capture-recapture density estimation, photo-capture rate, and individual identification through genetic analysis. We recorded snow leopard sign during standardized surveys in the SaryChat Zapovednik, the Jangart hunting reserve, and the Tomur Strictly Protected Area, in the Tien Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan and China. During June-December 2005, adjusted sign averaged 46.3 (SaryChat), 94.6 (Jangart), and 150.8 (Tomur) occurrences/km. We used
counts of ibex (Capra ibex) and argali (Ovis ammon) to estimate available prey biomass and subsequent potential snow leopard densities of 8.7 (SaryChat), 1.0 (Jangart), and 1.1 (Tomur) snow leopards/100 km2. Photo capture-recapture density estimates were 0.15 (n = 1 identified individual/1 photo), 0.87 (n = 4/13), and 0.74 (n = 5/6) individuals/100 km2 in SaryChat, Jangart, and Tomur, respectively. Photo-capture rates
(photos/100 trap-nights) were 0.09 (SaryChat), 0.93 (Jangart), and 2.37 (Tomur). Genetic analysis of snow leopard fecal samples provided minimum population sizes of 3 (SaryChat), 5 (Jangart), and 9 (Tomur) snow leopards. These results suggest SLIMS sign surveys may be affected by observer bias and environmental variance. However, when such bias and variation are accounted for, sign surveys indicate relative abundances similar to photo rates and genetic individual identification results. Density or abundance estimates based on capture-recapture or ungulate biomass did not agree with other indices of abundance. Confidence in estimated densities, or even detection of significant changes in abundance of snow leopard, will require more effort and better documentation.
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