|
Kichloo, M. A., Sharma, K., Sharma, N. (2023). Climate casualties or human disturbance? Shrinking distribution of the three large carnivores in the Greater Himalaya. Springer – Climatic Change, 176(118), 1–17.
Abstract: Mammalian carnivores are key to our understanding of ecosystem dynamics, but most of them are threatened with extinction all over the world. Conservating large carnivores is often an arduous task considering the complex relationship between humans and carnivores, and the diverse range and reasons of threats they face. Climate change is exacerbating the situation further by interacting with most existing threats and amplifying their impacts. The Mountains of Central and South Asia are warming twice as rapidly as the rest of the northern hemisphere. There has been limited research on the effect of climate change and other variables on large carnivores. We studied the patterns in spatio-temporal distribution of three sympatric carnivores, common leopard, snow leopard, and Asiatic black bear in Kishtwar high altitude National Park, a protected area in the Great Himalayan region of Jammu and Kashmir. We investigated the effects of key habitat characteristics as well as human disturbance and climatic factors to understand the spatio-temporal change in their distributions between the early 1990s and around the year 2016–2017. We found a marked contraction in the distribution of the three carnivores between the two time periods. While snow leopard shifted upwards and further away from human settlements, common leopard and Asiatic black bear suffered higher rates of local extinctions at higher altitudes and shifted to lower areas with more vegetation, even if that brought them closer to settlements. We also found some evidence that snow leopards were less likely to have faced range contraction in areas with permanent glaciers. Our study underscores the importance of climate adaptive conservation practices for long-term management in the Greater Himalaya, including the monitoring of changes in habitat, and space-use patterns by human communities and wildlife.
|
|
|
Xiao, L., Hua, F., Knops, J. M. H., Zhao, X., Mishra, C., Lovari, S., Alexander, J. S., Weckworth, B., Lu, Z. (2022). Spatial separation of prey from livestock facilitates coexistence of a specialized large carnivore with human land use. Animal Conservation, , 1–10.
Abstract: There is an increasing emphasis in conservation strategies for large carnivores on facilitating their coexistence with humans. Justification for coexistence strategies should be based on a quantitative assessment of currently remaining large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes. An essential part of a carnivore’s coexistence strategy has to rely on its prey. In this research, we studied snow leopards Panthera uncia whose habitat mainly comprises human-dominated, unprotected areas, to understand how a large carnivore and its primary prey, the bharal Pseudois nayaur, could coexist with human land use activities in a large proportion of its range. Using a combination of livestock census, camera trapping and wildlife surveys, across a broad gradient of livestock grazing intensity in a 363 000 km2 landscape on the Tibetan Plateau, we found no evidence of livestock grazing impacts on snow leopard habitat use, bharal density and spatial distribution, even though livestock density was 13 times higher than bharal density. Bharal were found to prefer utilizing more rugged habitats at higher elevations with lower grass forage conditions, whereas livestock dominated in flat valleys at lower elevations with higher productivity, especially during the resource-scarce season. These findings suggest that the spatial niche separation between bharal and livestock, together with snow leopards’ specialized bharal diet, minimized conflicts and allowed snow leopards and bharal to coexist in landscapes dominated by livestock grazing. In recent years, reduced hunting and nomadic herder’s lifestyle changes towards permanent residence may have further reinforced this spatial separation. Our results indicated that, for developing conservation strategies for large carnivores, the niche of their prey in relation to human land-use is a key variable that needs to be evaluated.
|
|
|
Kachel, S. M., Karimov, K., Wirsing, A. J. (2022). Predator niche overlap and partitioning and potential interactions in the mountains of Central Asia. Journal of Mammalogy, XX(X), 1–11.
Abstract: Direct and indirect interactions among predators affect predator fitness, distribution, and overall community structure. Yet, outside of experimental settings, such interactions are difficult to observe and thus poorly understood. Patterns of niche overlap among predators reflect and shape community interactions and may therefore help elucidate the nature and intensity of intraguild interactions. To better understand the coexistence of two apex predators, snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and wolves (Canis lupus), we investigated their spatial, temporal, and dietary niche overlap in summer in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan. We estimated population- level space use via spatial capture–recapture models based on noninvasive genetics and camera traps, diel activity patterns based on camera trap detections, and diet composition from prey remains in carnivore scats, from which we estimated coefficients between 0 and 1 for overlap in space, time, and diet, respectively. Snow leopards and wolves displayed moderate spatial partitioning (0.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.17–37), but overlapping temporal (0.77, 95% CI: 0.64–0.90) and dietary (0.97, 95% CI: 0.80–0.99) niches. Both predators relied on seasonally abundant marmots (Marmota caudata) rather than wild ungulates, their typical primary prey, suggesting that despite patterns of overlap that were superficially conducive to exploitation competition and predator facilitation, prey were likely not a limiting factor. Therefore, prey-mediated interactions, if present, were unlikely to be a major structuring force in the ecosystem. By implication, carnivore conservation planning and monitoring in the mountains of Central Asia should more fully account for the seasonal importance of marmots in the ecosystem.
|
|
|
Kachel, S., Anderson, K., Shokirov, Q. (2022). Predicting carnivore habitat use and livestock depredation risk with false-positive multi-state occupancy models. Biological Conservation, 271(109588), 1–10.
Abstract: The cycle of livestock depredation and retaliatory killing constitutes a major threat to large carnivores worldwide and imposes considerable hardships on human communities. Mitigation efforts are often undertaken with little knowledge of ecological underpinnings and patterns of depredation, limiting conservationists' ability to develop, prioritize, and evaluate solutions. Carnivore detection and depredation data from interviews in affected communities may help address this gap, but such data are often prone to false-positive uncertainty. To address these challenges in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan we collected snow leopard, lynx, wolf, and bear detection and depredation reports from local communities via semi-structured interviews. We used a novel hierarchical multi-species multi-state occupancy model that accounted for potential false-positives to investigate carnivore site use and depredation concurrently with respondents' apparent vulnerability to that risk. Estimated false-positive probabilities were small, but failure to account for them overstated site use probabilities and depredation risk for all species. Although individual vulnerability was low, depredation was nonetheless commonplace. Carnivore site use was driven by clear habitat associations, but we did not identify any clearly important large-scale spatial correlates of depredation risk despite considerable spatial variation in that risk. Respondents who sheltered livestock in household corrals reinforced with wire mesh were less likely to report snow leopard depredations. Reducing depredation and retaliation at adequately large scales in the Pamirs will likely require a portfolio of species-specific strategies, including widespread proactive corral improvements. Our approach expanded inference on the often-cryptic processes surrounding human-carnivore conflict even though structured wildlife data were scarce.
|
|
|
Filla, M., Lama, R. P., Filla, T., Heurich, M., Balkenhol, N., Waltert, M., Khorozyan, I. (2022). Patterns of livestock depredation by snow leopards and effects of intervention strategies: lessons from the Nepalese Himalaya. Wildlife Research, .
Abstract: Context: Large carnivores are increasingly threatened by anthropogenic activities, and their protection is among the main goals of biodiversity conservation. The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) inhabits high-mountain landscapes where livestock depredation drives it into conflicts with local people and poses an obstacle for its conservation.
Aims: The aim of this study was to identify the livestock groups most vulnerable to depredation, target them in implementation of practical interventions, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies for conflict mitigation. We present a novel attempt to evaluate intervention strategies for particularly vulnerable species, age groups, time, and seasons.
Methods: In 2020, we conducted questionnaire surveys in two regions of the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal (Manang, n = 146 respondents and Upper Mustang, n = 183). We applied sample comparison testing, Jacobs’ selectivity index, and generalised linear models (GLMs) to assess rates and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of depredation, reveal vulnerable livestock groups, analyse potential effects of applied intervention strategies, and identify husbandry factors relevant to depredation.
Key results: Snow leopard predation was a major cause of livestock mortality in both regions (25.4–39.8%), resulting in an estimated annual loss of 3.2–3.6% of all livestock. The main intervention strategies (e.g. corrals during night-time and herding during daytime) were applied inconsistently and not associated with decreases in reported livestock losses. In contrast, we found some evidence that dogs, deterrents (light, music playing, flapping tape, and dung burning), and the use of multiple interventions were associated with a reduction in reported night-time depredation of yaks.
Conclusions and implications: We suggest conducting controlled randomised experiments for quantitative assessment of the effectiveness of dogs, deterrents, and the use of multiple interventions, and widely applying the most effective ones in local communities. This would benefit the long-term co-existence of snow leopards and humans in the Annapurna region and beyond.
|
|
|
Feng, X., Peng, Q., Chen, Y., Li, W. (2022). A Case Study of the Snow Leopard in Sanjiangyuan National Park Boundaries regarding Park Boundary Divergence. Land, 11(813), 1–15.
Abstract: This paper uses remote sensing data from the Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP) to explore the divergence between the boundaries of national parks and the distribution of natural habitats. Results are used to argue that these discrepancies evolve along with the potential impact of global warming. Using the example of the habitat change of snow leopards and the conflicts between local people and snow leopards, we reflect on the consequences of this divergence. Results show that divergence between the political boundaries and natural habitats as well as the consequent influence on the living conditions of local people are strikingly visible, and the effects of global warming on such conflicts are apparent. The authors conclude that both notions of ‘political boundaries’ and ‘natural habitats’ are expected to come together as the SNP region is spatially configured, while ‘global warming’ seems to be relevant as an essential reference when delimiting the region in the future. Finally, the proposal for the establishment of cooperative conservation areas is presented,
emphasizing the role of cooperative governance in/around national parks.
|
|
|
Alexander, J. S., Bijoor, A., Gurmet, K., Murali, R., Mishra, C., Suryawanshi, K. R. (2022). Engaging women brings conservation benefits to snow leopard landscapes. Environmental Conservation, , 1–7.
Abstract: Protection of biodiversity requires inclusive and gender-responsive programming. Evidence of success in engaging women in large carnivore conservation remains scarce, however, although women play an important role in caring for livestock at risk of predation and could contribute to large-carnivore conservation. We aimed to assess the performance of an income-generation and skills-building programme for women in Spiti Valley (India) that sought to engage women in local conservation action. Annual programme monitoring together with a one-time survey of attitudes, perceptions and social norms in eight communities exposed to the conservation programme and seven ‘control’ communities revealed: a keen interest and increasing levels of women’s participation over 7 years of programme operation; participant reports of multiple programme benefits including additional personal income, social networking and travel opportunities; and more positive attitudes towards snow leopards among programme participants than among non-participants in the control communities. Women from programme communities recorded in their diaries 33 self-directed conservation actions including improving livestock protection and preventing wildlife poaching. These results show a way forward to purposively engage women in conservation programming towards achieving sustainable and equitable outcomes in efforts to promote carnivore–human coexistence.
|
|
|
Salvatori, M., Oberosler, V., Augugliaro, C., Krofel, M., Rovero, F. (2022). Effects of free-ranging livestock on occurrence and interspecific interactions of a mammalian community. Ecological-Applications., (e2644), 1–13.
Abstract: Mammalian communities inhabiting temperate grasslands are of conservation concern globally, especially in Central Asia, where livestock numbers have dramatically increased in recent decades, leading to overgrazing and land-use change. Yet, how this pervasive presence of livestock herds affects the community of wild mammals remains largely unstudied. We used systematic camera trapping at 216 sites across remote, mountainous areas of the Mongolian Altai Mountains to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of occurrence and the interspecific relationships within a mammalian community that includes different categories of livestock. By adopting a recently proposed multispecies occupancy model that incorporates interspecific correlation in occupancy, we found several statistically strong correlations in occupancy among species pairs, with the majority involving livestock. The sign of such associations was markedly species-dependent, with larger wild species of conservation concern, namely, snow leopard and Siberian ibex, avoiding livestock presence. As predicted, we found evidence of a positive correlation in occupancy between predators and their respective main prey. Contrary to our expectations, a number of intraguild species pairs also showed positive co-occurrence, with no evidence of spatiotemporal niche partitioning. Overall, our study suggests that livestock encroaching into protected areas influences the whole local community of wild mammals. Though pastoralism has coexisted with wildlife for millennia in central Asian grasslands, our findings suggest that policies and practices to decrease the pressure of livestock husbandry on wildlife are needed, with special attention on large species, such as the snow leopard and its wild prey, which seem to be particularly sensitive to this pervasive livestock presence.
|
|
|
Kachel, S., Bayrakcismith, R., Kubanychbekov, Z., Kulenbekov, R., McCarthy, T., Weckworth, B., Wirsing, A. (2022). Ungulate spatiotemporal responses to contrasting predation risk from wolves and snow leopards. Journal of Animal Ecology, , 1–16.
Abstract: 1. Spatial responses to risk from multiple predators can precipitate emergent consequences for prey (i.e. multiple-predator effects, MPEs) and mediate indirect interactions between predators. How prey navigate risk from multiple predators may therefore have important ramifications for understanding the propagation of predation-risk effects (PREs) through ecosystems.
2. The interaction of predator and prey traits has emerged as a potentially key driver of antipredator behaviour but remains underexplored in large vertebrate systems, particularly where sympatric prey share multiple predators. We sought to better generalize our understanding of how predators influence their ecosystems by considering how multiple sources of contingency drive prey distribution in a multi-predator–multi-prey system.
3. Specifically, we explored how two sympatric ungulates with different escape tactics—vertically agile, scrambling ibex Capra sibirica and sprinting argali Ovis ammon—responded to predation risk from shared predators with contrasting hunting modes—cursorial wolves Canis lupus and vertical-ambushing, stalking snow leopards Panthera uncia.
4. Contrasting risk posed by the two predators presented prey with clear trade-offs. Ibex selected for greater exposure to chronic long-term risk from snow leopards, and argali for wolves, in a nearly symmetrical manner that was predictable based on the compatibility of their respective traits. Yet, acute short-term risk from the same predator upended these long-term strategies, increasing each ungulates' exposure to risk from the alternate predator in a manner consistent with a scenario in which conflicting antipredator behaviours precipitate risk-enhancing MPEs and mediate predator facilitation. By contrast, reactive responses to wolves led ibex to reduce their exposure to risk from both predators—a risk-reducing MPE. Evidence of a similar reactive risk-reducing effect for argali vis-à-vis snow leopards was lacking.
5. Our results suggest that prey spatial responses and any resulting MPEs and prey-mediated interactions between predators are contingent on the interplay of hunting mode and escape tactics. Further investigation of interactions among various drivers of contingency in PREs will contribute to a more comprehensive understanding and improved forecasting of the ecological effects of predators.
|
|
|
Bohnett, E., Faryabi, S. P., Lewison, R., An, L., Bian, X., Rajabi, A. M., Jahed, N., Rooyesh, H., Mills, E., Ramos, S., Mesnildrey, N., Perez, C. M. S., Taylor, J., Terentyev, V., Ostrowski, S. (2023). Human expertise combined with artificial intelligence improves performance of snow leopard camera trap studies. Global Ecology & Conservation, 41(e02350), 1–13.
Abstract: Camera trapping is the most widely used data collection method for estimating snow leopard (Panthera uncia) abundance; however, the accuracy of this method is limited by human observer errors from misclassifying individuals in camera trap images. We evaluated the extent Whiskerbook (www.whiskerbook.org), an artificial intelligence (AI) software, could reduce this error rate and enhance the accuracy of capture-recapture abundance estimates. Using 439 images of 34 captive snow leopard individuals, classification was performed by five observers with prior experience in individual snow leopard ID (“experts”) and five observers with no such experience (“novices”). The “expert” observers classified 35 out of 34 snow leopard individuals, on average erroneously splitting one individual into two, thus resulting in a higher number than true individuals. The success rate of experts was 90 %, with less than a 3 % error in estimating the population size in capture-recapture modeling. However, the “novice” observers successfully matched 71 % of encounters, recognizing 25 out of 34 individuals, underestimating the population by 25 %. It was found that expert observers significantly outperformed novice observers, making statistically fewer errors (Mann Whitney U test P = 0.01) and finding the true number of individuals (P = 0.01). These differences were contrasted with a previous study by Johansson et al. 2020, using the same subset of 16 individuals from European zoos. With the help of AI and the Whiskerbook platform, “experts” were able to match 87 % of encounters and identify 15 out of 16 individuals, with modeled estimates of 16 ± 1 individuals. In contrast, “novices” were 63 % accurate in matching encounters and identified 12 out of 16 individuals, modeling 12 ± 1 individuals that underestimated the population size by 12 %. When comparing the performance of observers using AI and the Whiskerbook platform to observers performing the tasks manually, we found that observers using Whiskerbook made significantly fewer errors in splitting one individual into two (P = 0.04). However, there were also a significantly higher number of combination errors, where two individuals were combined into one (P = 0.01). Specifically, combination errors were found to be made by “novices” (P = 0.04). Although AI benefited both expert and novice observers, expert observers outperformed novices. Our results suggest that AI effectively reduced the misclassification of individual snow leopards in camera trap studies, improving abundance estimates. However, even with AI support, expert observers were needed to obtain the most accurate estimates.
|
|