Abstract: Wild ungulates play vital roles in maintaining a balanced ecosystem through herbivory and are also an important determinant of carnivores’ density. The flare-horned markhor (Capra falconeri) is a threatened wild goat distributed across the mountain ranges of Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. The remote terrain and fragmented population limit our understanding of the population ecology of markhor, though knowledge of the target species population is vital for making informed management decisions. Therefore, the current study was designed to determine the markhor population across their range in Northern Pakistan and to evaluate the efforts made by the government and non-government organizations for the conservation of markhor. Double-observer surveys were conducted during 2019–2021 in nine major watersheds of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan covering an area of 4664 km2. Secondary data were collected for unassessed areas to gain a holistic overview of the markhor population and density in the region. Results revealed a markhor population of 7579, with a density of 0.30 animals per km2 in Northern Pakistan. Our analysis of the double-observer data through the Bayesian behavioral capture–recapture model estimated a population of 5993 individuals (95% CI) of markhor across
nine study sites, with a density of 1.28 animals per km . A review of secondary data revealed that
a population of about 1586 was present in the un-surveyed area (20,033.33 km2), with a density
of 0.08 per km . A total of 146 groups of markhor were counted, with a mean group size of 23
(3–58) individuals. There were 109 males and 108 young per 100 females in the population. Among 1936 recorded males, Class I males accounted for 27.74%, followed by Class II (26.45%), Class IV (trophy-size) (23.40%), and Class III (22.42%). The overall detection probability was recorded as 0.87 and 0.68 for the first observer and second observer, respectively. Compared with the past reports, the population of markhor in Northern Pakistan appears to be increasing, particularly in protected areas (PAs) such as national parks and community-controlled hunting areas (CCHAs). Conservation programs, notably trophy hunting and PA networks, appear to be vital in sustaining markhor populations in parts of the species range. We recommend expansion in such programs in the markhor range in order to maintain a viable population of this majestic wild goat in the region.

Abstract: Predators shape their ecosystems through myriad interactions with prey, other predators, and humans. However, the effects of these interactions may be contingent on multiple contextual factors, hindering prediction in any given community and impeding a general understanding of the ecological effects of predators. Despite their prominence as conservation flagship in the mountains of Central Asia, even basic aspects of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) ecology remain underexplored and poorly understood. The ecology of wolves (Canis lupus), sympatric with snow leopards throughout that species’ range, has been even more neglected in the region, notwithstanding the significant impact of livestock depredation on pastoralist communities. This dissertation examines the interactions underlying the coexistence of wolves and snow leopards, including those with humans and their joint effects on prey, with the broader goal of improving our understanding of the context-dependence of the non-consumptive effects (NCEs) of predators. In Chapter 2, I explore the patterns of spatial, temporal, and dietary niche overlap between wolves and snow leopards in the Eastern Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan. I show that in
light of dietary and temporal overlap, the two predators’ coexistence may depend on strong spatial partitioning. In Chapter 3, I explore the consequences of this spatial partitioning by investigating how shared prey with distinct escape tactics, ibex (Capra sibirica) and argali (Ovis ammon), navigate the tradeoffs posed by the two predators in the Central Tien Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. Each ungulate responded to each predator in a manner that was predictable based on the compatibility of their respective evasion and hunting-mode traits, suggesting that non- consumptive predator effects depend not on predator hunting mode or prey escape tactics, but rather on their interaction. Furthermore, short-term predation risk may upend each ungulates’ long-term risk avoidance strategy, suggesting that emergent effects of multiple predators may have important consequences in this system. In Chapter 4, I develop a novel approach to investigate large-scale patterns of livestock depredation risk and occurrence for wolves and snow leopards, but also lynx (Lynx lynx) and bears (Ursus arctos), in the Western Pamirs of Tajikistan. Livestock depredation was commonplace, with most communities exposed to multiple predators, highlighting that conservation efforts meant to reduce conflict between people and carnivores should aim to reduce depredation as it is experienced by human communities – a threat from the entire carnivore guild. Overall, my results suggest that single-species approaches to conservation in the mountains of Central Asia may be inadequate for ecosystems and people. This dissertation advances the cause of conservation in Central Asia by providing an empirical perspective on how snow leopards and wolves coexist and shape their ecosystems, and by providing practical insight into the challenge of livestock depredation and conflict, a primary threat to wolves and snow leopards in the region. By showing that the non-consumptive effects of predators cannot be predicted based solely on prey escape tactics or predator hunting mode alone, it also contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the role of predators in shaping ecosystems.

Abstract: Mountain ungulates perform a key role in maintaining the balance of ecosystems as they are the primary consumers of vegetation and prey for large predators. The mountain ranges of northern Pakistan are home to six species of mountain ungulates, and the Himalayan ibex (Capra sibirica), hereafter ibex, is the most abundant among them. This study was conducted in three administrative regions of northern Pakistan, viz. Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), to generate a range-wide density pattern map of ibex. A double-observer survey was conducted in 25 study sites during 2018–2021 across the ibex distribution range, covering an area of about 35,307 km2, by walking transects totaling 1647 km. Within the ibex range where the survey was not conducted due to financial and logistical constraints, we obtained species population information from local wildlife departments’ most recent annual survey data. The aim was to generate a density map for the entire ibex range. Using the BBRe-capture package in program R, we estimated an ibex population of 7639 (95 % CI) with a mean density of 0.21/km2 in the surveyed area. Combining with the secondary data from un-surveyed areas, the total population estimate for the country came to 10,242 ibex. The largest population densities were observed in four valleys (Shimshal, Gulkin-Hussaini, Khyber, and Khunjerab) of the Karakoram-Pamir range, followed by the Hindu Kush range (Chitral Wildlife Division [WD]). The central and eastern parts of the Karakoram range had moderate to low densities, while the Himalayan range (e.g., Astore Valley) supported a small population. The mean herd size was 15 individuals (range: 5–41), and the average detection probability of observers A and B was 0.69 and 0.48, respectively. The average male and young ratios per 100 females were estimated to be 75 and 81, respectively. The range-wide density map developed during the study provided an evidence for the impact of trophy hunting programs and an objective tool for range-wide conservation planning of the species.

Abstract: Background: Large-scale changes in habitat conditions due to human modifications and climate change require management practices to consider how species communities can alter amidst these changes. Understanding species interactions across the gradient of space, anthropogenic pressure, and season provide the opportunity to anticipate possible dynamics in the changing scenarios. We studied the interspecific interactions of carnivore species in a high-altitude ecosystem over seasonal (summer and winter) and resource gradients (livestock grazing) to assess the impact of changing abiotic and biotic settings on coexistence.
Methods: The study was conducted in the Upper Bhagirathi basin, Western Himalaya, India. We analyzed around 4 years of camera trap monitoring data to understand seasonal spatial and temporal interactions of the snow leopard with common leopard and woolly wolf were assessed in the greater and trans-Himalayan habitats, respectively. We used two species occupancy models to assess spatial interactions, and circadian activity patterns were used to assess seasonal temporal overlap amongst carnivores. In addition, we examined scats to understand the commonalities in prey selection.
Results: The result showed that although snow leopard and wolves depend on the same limited prey species and show high temporal overlap, habitat heterogeneity and differential habitat use facilitate co-occurrence between these two predators. Snow leopard and common leopard were spatially independent in the summer. Conversely, the common leopard negatively influences the space use of snow leopard in the winter. Limited prey resources (lack of livestock), restricted space (due to snow cover), and similar activity patterns in winter might result in strong competition, causing these species to avoid each other on a spatial scale. The study showed that in addition to species traits and size, ecological settings also play a significant role in deciding the intensity of competition between large carnivores. Climate change and habitat shifts are predicted to increase the spatial overlap between snow leopard and co-predators in the future. In such scenarios, wolves and snow leopards may coexist in a topographically diverse environment, provided sufficient prey are available. However, shifts in tree line might lead to severe competition between common leopards and snow leopards, which could be detrimental to the latter. Further monitoring of resource use across abiotic and biotic environments may improve our understanding of how changing ecological conditions can affect resource partitioning between snow leopards and predators.

Abstract: Rangelands are increasingly being affected by climatic variations, fragmentation and changes in livestock management practices. Along with resource competition between livestock and wildlife, disease transmission has implications for people and wildlife in these shared landscapes. We worked with two pastoral communities in the Western Indian Himalayas: the migratory Kinnauras that travel to the Trans‐Himalayan Pin valley in summer and the resident herders of Pin Valley. Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica) is the predominant wild herbivore in Pin. The pastures in Pin are grazed by both livestock (migratory and resident) and ibex, with the potential for disease transmission. We investigate the effects of herding practices on livestock health and disease transmission, while focusing on gastro‐intestinal nematodes (GINs) as they can spread by sharing pasture between wild and domestic ungulates. Surveys were carried out between June and August 2019, the period when migratory Kinnauras, local herders and Asiatic Ibex are found in Pin Valley. We found that the Kinnaura flocks share pasture with ibex during their time in Pin, exhibiting significantly higher endo‐parasite burdens than sedentary livestock, and the Kinnaura flocks are increasing in number. This suggests GIN cross‐transmission is possible, as GINs have low host specificity and a free‐living, environmental stage that is trophically acquired. As local (sedentary) sheep and goats rarely share pasture with ibex, have low endo‐parasite burdens and are few in number, they are unlikely to transmit parasites to ibex. However, increasingly large local stock numbers may be contributing to pasture degradation which could cause nutritional stress and resource competition, exacerbating GIN impacts. We also find evidence for transhumance persisting, in spite of signs of pasture degradation that are seemingly affecting livestock productivity and potentially disease transmission. It is critical that proactive measures are taken, like participatory disease management with the Kinnauras, to align livelihoods with wildlife and rangeland conservation.