Abstract: Pakistan’s total estimated snow leopard habitat is about
80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime habitat. However,
this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the
actual distribution the discrepancy may be huge at the local and
regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping
and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records
that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on
empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. The
current study followed this approach to construct an accurate
distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors,
among different landscapes, were also identified through circuit theory.
The probability of habitat suitability, generated from 98 presence
points and 11 environmental variables, scored the snow leopard’s assumed
range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large portion of the known range
represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat,
Astore, and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber,
Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats.
Variables with higher contributions in the MaxEnt model were
precipitation during the driest month (34%), annual mean temperature
(19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation
(9.4%), and river density (9.2). The model was validated through
receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and defined thresholds.
The average test AUC in Maxent for the replicate runs was 0.933 while
the value of AUC by ROC curve calculated at 0.15 threshold was 1.00.
These validation tests suggested a good model fit and strong predictive
power. The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the
Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in
Afghani- stan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly,
the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and
Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was connected with the
population in India. Based on our findings we propose three model
landscapes to be considered under the Global Snow Leopard Ecosystem
Protection Program (GSLEP) agenda as regional priority areas, to
safeguard the future of the snow leopard in Pakistan and the region.
These landscapes fall within mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush
and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in the
existing protected areas network and suggest new protected areas in
Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow
leopard in Pakistan.