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Din, J. U., Bari, F., Ali, H., Rehman, E. U., Adli, D. S. H., Abdullah, N. A., Norma-Rashid, Y., Kabir, M., Hameed, S., Nawaz, D. A., Nawaz, M. A. (2022). Drivers of snow leopard poaching and trade in Pakistan and implications for management. Nature Conservation, 46, 49–62.
Abstract: The snow leopard is one of the highly valued species from high-altitude mountain ecosystems of Central and Southeast Asia, including Pakistan. This keystone species is facing a myriad of conventional and emerging threats, including poaching and trade, that are poorly documented in Pakistan. To understand the dynamics and drivers of the poaching and trading of snow leopards in Pakistan, we investigated the issue in depth through a multifaceted survey in the snow leopard range of the country. We recorded 101 snow leopard poaching incidences from 11 districts during 2005–2017. The reported poaching incidences varied spatially (‒x = 9 ± 2.6 [95% Cl: 3–15]) and temporally (‒x = 7.8 ± 1.09) and accounted for 2–4% annual population loss (n = 200–420) in a period of 13 years. Poaching and trade together constituted 89% of the total incidence reported and animals were mostly shot (66%), poisoned (12%), snared (12%) and captured (4%), respectively. Only a fraction (3%) of the incidences were reported to the relevant law enforcement agencies. Trade routes included large cities and neighbouring countries, even the Middle East and Europe. The average base and end prices for each item were 245 ± 36 USD and 1,736 ± 520 USD, respectively, while maximum monetary fines set as per the law were 275 USD. Our results establish the need for developing multi-stakeholder coordination mechanisms at regional, national and international levels and information sharing to curb this menace. Improving the existing laws and surveillance system, while taking the local communities onboard, will further help to this end.
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Khanyari, M., Suryawanshi, K. R., Milner-Gulland, E. J., Dickinson, E., Khara, A., Rana, R. S., Vineer, H. R., Morgan, E. R. (2021). Predicting Parasite Dynamics in Mixed-Use Trans-Himalayan Pastures to Underpin Management of Cross-Transmission Between Livestock and Bharal. Frontiers in Veterinary Science, 8(714241), 1–21.
Abstract: The complexities of multi-use landscapes require sophisticated approaches to addressing disease transmission risks. We explored gastro-intestinal nematode (GINs) infections in the North India Trans-Himalayas through a socio-ecological lens, integrating parasite transmission modelling with field surveys and local knowledge, and evaluated the likely effectiveness of potential interventions. Bharal (blue sheep; Pseudois nayaur), a native wild herbivore, and livestock share pasture year-round and livestock commonly show signs of GINs infection. While both wild and domestic ungulates had GINs infections, egg counts indicated significantly higher parasite burdens in bharal than livestock. However, due to higher livestock densities, they contributed more to the total count of eggs and infective larvae on pasture. Herders also reported health issues in their sheep and goats consistent with parasite infections. Model simulations suggested that pasture infectivity in this system is governed by historical pasture use and gradually accumulated larval development during the summer, with no distinct short-term flashpoints for transmission. The most effective intervention was consequently predicted to be early-season parasite suppression in livestock using temperature in spring as a cue. A 1-month pause in egg output from livestock could lead to a reduction in total annual availability of infective larvae on pasture of 76%, potentially benefitting the health of both livestock and bharal. Modelling suggested that climate change over the past 33 years has led to no overall change in GINs transmission potential, but an increase in the relative influence of temperature over precipitation in driving pasture infectivity. Our study provides a transferable multi-pronged approach to investigating disease transmission, in order to support herders’ livelihoods and conserve wild ungulates.
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Shao, X., Lu, Q., Xiong, M., Bu, H., Shi, X., Wang, D., Zhao, J., Li, S., Yao, M. (2021). Prey partitioning and livestock consumption in the world’s richest large carnivore assemblage. Current Biology, 31, 4887–4897.
Abstract: Large mammalian carnivores have undergone catastrophic declines during the Anthropocene across the world. Despite their pivotal roles as apex predators in food webs and ecosystem dynamics, few detailed di- etary datasets of large carnivores exist, prohibiting deep understanding of their coexistence and persistence in human-dominated landscapes. Here, we present fine-scaled, quantitative trophic interactions among sym- patric carnivores from three assemblages in the Mountains of Southwest China, a global biodiversity hotspot harboring the world’s richest large-carnivore diversity, derived from DNA metabarcoding of 1,097 fecal sam- ples. These assemblages comprise a large-carnivore guild ranging from zero to five species along with two mesocarnivore species. We constructed predator-prey food webs for each assemblage and identified 95 vertebrate prey taxa and 260 feeding interactions in sum. Each carnivore species consumed 6–39 prey taxa, and dietary diversity decreased with increased carnivore body mass across guilds. Dietary partitioning was more evident between large-carnivore and mesocarnivore guilds, yet different large carnivores showed divergent proportional utilization of different-sized prey correlating with their own body masses. Large car- nivores particularly selected livestock in Tibetan-dominated regions, where the indigenous people show high tolerance toward wild predators. Our results suggest that dietary niche partitioning and livestock subsidies facilitate large-carnivore sympatry and persistence and have key implications for sustainable conservation promoting human-carnivore coexistence.
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Lu, Q., Xiao, L., Cheng, C., Lu, Z., Zhao, J., Yao, M. (2021). Snow Leopard Dietary Preferences and Livestock Predation Revealed by Fecal DNA Metabarcoding: No Evidence for Apparent Competition Between Wild and Domestic Prey. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 9(783546), 1–14.
Abstract: Accurate assessments of the patterns and drivers of livestock depredation by wild carnivores are vital for designing effective mitigation strategies to reduce human-wildlife conflict. Snow leopard’s (Panthera uncia) range extensively overlaps pastoralist land- use and livestock predation there is widely reported, but the ecological determinants of livestock consumption by snow leopards remain obscure. We investigated snow leopard dietary habits at seven sites across the Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai– Tibetan Plateau (QTP), an area central to the species’ global range. Snow leopard abundance, wild prey composition, and livestock density varied among those sites, thus allowing us to test the effects of various factors on snow leopard diet and livestock predation. Using DNA metabarcoding, we obtained highly resolved dietary data from 351 genetically verified snow leopard fecal samples. We then analyzed the prey preferences of snow leopards and examined ecological factors related to their livestock consumption. Across the sites, snow leopard prey was composed mainly of wild ungulates (mean = 81.5% of dietary sequences), particularly bharal (Pseudois nayaur), and supplemented with livestock (7.62%) and smaller mammals (marmots, pikas, mice; 10.7%). Snow leopards showed a strong preference for bharal, relative to livestock, based on their densities. Interestingly, both proportional and total livestock consumption by snow leopards increased linearly with local livestock biomass, but not with livestock density. That, together with a slight negative relationship with bharal density, supports apparent facilitation between wild and domestic prey. We also found a significant positive correlation between population densities of snow leopard and bharal, yet those densities showed slight negative relationships with livestock density. Our results highlight the importance of sufficient wild ungulate abundance to the conservation of viable snow leopard populations. Additionally, livestock protection is critically needed to reduce losses to snow leopard depredation, especially where local livestock abundances are high.
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Xiao, L., Hua, F., Knops, J. M. H., Zhao, X., Mishra, C., Lovari, S., Alexander, J. S., Weckworth, B., Lu, Z. (2022). Spatial separation of prey from livestock facilitates coexistence of a specialized large carnivore with human land use. Animal Conservation, , 1–10.
Abstract: There is an increasing emphasis in conservation strategies for large carnivores on facilitating their coexistence with humans. Justification for coexistence strategies should be based on a quantitative assessment of currently remaining large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes. An essential part of a carnivore’s coexistence strategy has to rely on its prey. In this research, we studied snow leopards Panthera uncia whose habitat mainly comprises human-dominated, unprotected areas, to understand how a large carnivore and its primary prey, the bharal Pseudois nayaur, could coexist with human land use activities in a large proportion of its range. Using a combination of livestock census, camera trapping and wildlife surveys, across a broad gradient of livestock grazing intensity in a 363 000 km2 landscape on the Tibetan Plateau, we found no evidence of livestock grazing impacts on snow leopard habitat use, bharal density and spatial distribution, even though livestock density was 13 times higher than bharal density. Bharal were found to prefer utilizing more rugged habitats at higher elevations with lower grass forage conditions, whereas livestock dominated in flat valleys at lower elevations with higher productivity, especially during the resource-scarce season. These findings suggest that the spatial niche separation between bharal and livestock, together with snow leopards’ specialized bharal diet, minimized conflicts and allowed snow leopards and bharal to coexist in landscapes dominated by livestock grazing. In recent years, reduced hunting and nomadic herder’s lifestyle changes towards permanent residence may have further reinforced this spatial separation. Our results indicated that, for developing conservation strategies for large carnivores, the niche of their prey in relation to human land-use is a key variable that needs to be evaluated.
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Hanson, J. H. Household Conflicts with Snow Leopard Conservation and Impacts from Snow Leopards in the Everest and Annapurna Regions of Nepal. Environmental Management, , 1 of 12.
Abstract: Impacts on households from large carnivores are frequently reported in the conservation literature, but conflicts between households and large carnivore conservation are not. Employing a human-wildlife coexistence framework that distinguishes between human-wildlife impacts on one hand, and human-conservation conflicts on the other, this paper presents data from Annapurna Conservation Area and Sagarmatha (Everest) National Park, Nepal, each with different models of conservation governance. Using systematic sampling, quantitative information from 705 households was collected via questionnaires, while 70 semi-structured interviews were conducted with key informants for cross-methods triangulation. 7.7% of households reported conflicts with snow leopard conservation in the previous 12 months, primarily due to damage to livelihoods; these were significantly higher in the Annapurna region. 373 livestock were reported lost by households to snow leopards in the previous 12 months, representing 3.4% of total livestock owned and US$ 132,450 in financial value. Livestock losses were significantly lower in the Everest area. In linear regression models, total household livestock losses to all sources best explained conflicts with snow leopard conservation and household livestock losses to snow leopards but the models for the former dependent variable had very low explanatory power. Conservation in general, and large carnivore conservation in particular, should distinguish carefully between impacts caused by coexistence with these species and conflicts with conservation actors and over the methods and interventions used to conserve carnivores, especially where these negatively impact local livelihoods. In addition, livestock husbandry standards are highlighted again as an important factor in the success of carnivore conservation programmes.
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Kachel, S. M., Karimov, K., Wirsing, A. J. (2022). Predator niche overlap and partitioning and potential interactions in the mountains of Central Asia. Journal of Mammalogy, XX(X), 1–11.
Abstract: Direct and indirect interactions among predators affect predator fitness, distribution, and overall community structure. Yet, outside of experimental settings, such interactions are difficult to observe and thus poorly understood. Patterns of niche overlap among predators reflect and shape community interactions and may therefore help elucidate the nature and intensity of intraguild interactions. To better understand the coexistence of two apex predators, snow leopards (Panthera uncia) and wolves (Canis lupus), we investigated their spatial, temporal, and dietary niche overlap in summer in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan. We estimated population- level space use via spatial capture–recapture models based on noninvasive genetics and camera traps, diel activity patterns based on camera trap detections, and diet composition from prey remains in carnivore scats, from which we estimated coefficients between 0 and 1 for overlap in space, time, and diet, respectively. Snow leopards and wolves displayed moderate spatial partitioning (0.26, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.17–37), but overlapping temporal (0.77, 95% CI: 0.64–0.90) and dietary (0.97, 95% CI: 0.80–0.99) niches. Both predators relied on seasonally abundant marmots (Marmota caudata) rather than wild ungulates, their typical primary prey, suggesting that despite patterns of overlap that were superficially conducive to exploitation competition and predator facilitation, prey were likely not a limiting factor. Therefore, prey-mediated interactions, if present, were unlikely to be a major structuring force in the ecosystem. By implication, carnivore conservation planning and monitoring in the mountains of Central Asia should more fully account for the seasonal importance of marmots in the ecosystem.
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Kachel, S., Anderson, K., Shokirov, Q. (2022). Predicting carnivore habitat use and livestock depredation risk with false-positive multi-state occupancy models. Biological Conservation, 271(109588), 1–10.
Abstract: The cycle of livestock depredation and retaliatory killing constitutes a major threat to large carnivores worldwide and imposes considerable hardships on human communities. Mitigation efforts are often undertaken with little knowledge of ecological underpinnings and patterns of depredation, limiting conservationists' ability to develop, prioritize, and evaluate solutions. Carnivore detection and depredation data from interviews in affected communities may help address this gap, but such data are often prone to false-positive uncertainty. To address these challenges in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan we collected snow leopard, lynx, wolf, and bear detection and depredation reports from local communities via semi-structured interviews. We used a novel hierarchical multi-species multi-state occupancy model that accounted for potential false-positives to investigate carnivore site use and depredation concurrently with respondents' apparent vulnerability to that risk. Estimated false-positive probabilities were small, but failure to account for them overstated site use probabilities and depredation risk for all species. Although individual vulnerability was low, depredation was nonetheless commonplace. Carnivore site use was driven by clear habitat associations, but we did not identify any clearly important large-scale spatial correlates of depredation risk despite considerable spatial variation in that risk. Respondents who sheltered livestock in household corrals reinforced with wire mesh were less likely to report snow leopard depredations. Reducing depredation and retaliation at adequately large scales in the Pamirs will likely require a portfolio of species-specific strategies, including widespread proactive corral improvements. Our approach expanded inference on the often-cryptic processes surrounding human-carnivore conflict even though structured wildlife data were scarce.
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Filla, M., Lama, R. P., Ghale, T. R., Filla, T., Heurich, M., Waltert, M., Khorozyan, I. (2022). Blue sheep strongly affect snow leopard relative abundance but not livestock depredation in the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal. Global Ecology and Conservation, 37(e02153), 1–15.
Abstract: Large carnivores play key roles in their ecosystems, but their protection is a major challenge in biodiversity conservation due to conflicts with human interests. The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) is the top predator of Asian high-altitude landscapes and faces various threats including wild prey depletion and illegal killings as a consequence of livestock depredation. As the interactions between snow leopards, wild prey, and livestock are still insufficiently understood, we studied the effects of 1) wild prey (blue sheep Pseudois nayaur and Himalayan marmots Marmota himalayana) and domestic prey on snow leopard relative abundance, and of 2) these ecological parameters and intervention applications on livestock depredation by snow leopards. In the Annapurna Conservation Area, Nepal, we monitored wildlife populations and livestock along transects (490.8 km) in 82 grid cells (4 ×4 km) in 2019 and 2021 and conducted questionnaire surveys to determine livestock depredation between 2018 and 2021 (n = 479 households). We applied generalized linear models (GLMs) and sample comparison testing to examine the effects of prey densities and other environmental and anthropogenic predictors on snow leopard relative abundance and livestock depredation. Blue sheep density strongly positively affected snow leopard relative abundance, which also increased with terrain ruggedness and decreased with increasing densities of livestock and the human population. The size of livestock holdings shaped depredation events of large livestock (yak, cattle and horse), whereas depredation events of sheep and goats, which accounted for most (68.6%) depredated animals, decreased with increasing human population density and marmot presence. The strong impact of blue sheep on snow leopard relative abundance supports demands for integrating this ungulate into conservation and management plans, including wild prey recovery and translocation. The rather weak evidence for effects of blue sheep on depredation events suggests that conflicts over livestock depredation by snow leopards would neither be inflicted nor solved by increasing wild prey abundance. This demonstrates the need to improve intervention strategies in the Annapurna region, such as predator-proofing corrals and optimizing daytime herding practices. We suggest further exploring the effects of marmots and other secondary prey on livestock depredation rates, and testing the suitability of additional interventions, e.g., dogs and deterrents, as conflict mitigation tools. Our results will support wildlife managers in setting conservation priorities to promote the long-term co-existence of local people and snow leopards.
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Filla, M., Lama, R. P., Ghale, T. R., Signer, J., Filla, T., Aryal, R. R., Heurich, M., Waltert, M., Balkenhol, N., Khorozyan, I. (2020). In the shadows of snow leopards and the Himalayas: density and habitat selection of blue sheep in Manang, Nepal. Ecology and Evolution, 2021(11), 108–122.
Abstract: There is a growing agreement that conservation needs to be proactive and pay increased attention to common species and to the threats they face. The blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) plays a key ecological role in sensitive high-altitude ecosystems of Central Asia and is among the main prey species for the globally vulnerable snow leopard (Panthera uncia). As the blue sheep has been increasingly exposed to human pressures, it is vital to estimate its population dynamics, protect the key populations, identify important habitats, and secure a balance between conservation and local livelihoods. We conducted a study in Manang, Annapurna Conservation Area (Nepal), to survey blue sheep on 60 transects in spring (127.9 km) and 61 transects in autumn (134.7 km) of 2019, estimate their minimum densities from total counts, compare these densities with previous estimates, and assess blue sheep habitat selection by the application of generalized additive models (GAMs). Total counts yielded minimum density estimates of 6.0–7.7 and 6.9–7.8 individuals/km2 in spring and autumn, respectively, which are relatively high compared to other areas. Elevation and, to a lesser extent, land cover indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) strongly affected habitat selection by blue sheep, whereas the effects of anthropogenic variables were insignificant. Animals were found mainly in habitats associated with grasslands and shrublands at elevations between 4,200 and 4,700 m. We show that the blue sheep population size in Manang has been largely maintained over the past three decades, indicating the success of the integrated conservation and development efforts in this area. Considering a strong dependence of snow leopards on blue sheep, these findings give hope for the long-term conservation of this big cat in Manang. We suggest that long-term population monitoring and a better understanding of blue sheep–livestock interactions are crucial to maintain healthy populations of blue sheep and, as a consequence, of snow leopards.
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